Thoughts on the 2025 US Open
Alcaraz avenges Wimbledon, solid Sabalenka, Naomi returns and who's stepping up in 2026?
Alcaraz Avenges Wimbledon
If there are two words that could be attributed to both singles champions at Flushing Meadows, they might be composure and focus. At the last major of the season, two great champions responded to recent defeats and made changes for their finals.
In Alcaraz’s case, he was laser-focused from the off, finding a perfect balance between exuberance and ruthlessness. We saw plenty of his unique repertoire, but the devastating consistency of his forehand, serve and temperament made it a very different final to the one at SW19.
The Spaniard has struggled at times to hit his spots on serve in crucial matches. That was no issue this fortnight. Alcaraz only faced 10 break points in the entire tournament, the fewest for a male grand slam champion since 1991.
On the final Sunday, Alcaraz was ready to go to war with Sinner for however long it would take. His exceptional ability made it a shorter affair than we expected. The level of play that Alcaraz reached at his peak has to be considered in the same vein as the Big Three at their best.
With six grand slam trophies in the cabinet at 22, he is already level in the all-time standings with Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker. If Alcaraz wins the Australian Open this coming January, or even in 2027, he will surpass Rafael Nadal and become the youngest man to earn the career grand slam.
How lucky are we that this Murcian came along so soon after Roger, Rafa and Novak?
Sabalenka's Solidity
While it was not as spectacular a performance as Alcaraz (what is?), Aryna Sabalenka’s gave a fine demonstration of the experience and control she can tap into when required.
Before New York, the Belarusian had a frustrating run in the majors given her expectations. For most mortals, two finals and a semi-final in one year are extraordinary accomplishments. But the world no.1 demands more, and I think her dreadful performance in the Roland Garros final must have particularly stung.
In New York however, the 27-year-old was every bit the major champion. She did not drop a set in her first four matches, raised her game in the semi-final against Jessica Pegula, and then controlled the final against an erratic Anisimova. You could really see the incremental gains she has made in recent years, particularly with regard to her movement and consistency.
Sabalenka can now sign off on 2025 as another excellent campaign in her stellar career. Four majors and counting.
Sinner Searches for Solutions
Given the emphatic nature of his victory in the Wimbledon final, you may have thought that Jannik Sinner had reset the rivalry with Alcaraz. That was not the case here.
The Italian’s serve misfired in the final with a subpar 48% of first deliveries in. This surely contributed to the fascinating spectacle of watching the world no.1 stressed on court. Sinner looked shell-shocked by Alcaraz’s level in the first set and for the most part, struggled to find any reliable patterns of attack. He conceded as much afterwards:
“I was very predictable today on court. He did many things, he changed up the game…So I'm going to aim to maybe even lose some matches from now on, but trying to do some changes, trying to be a bit more unpredictable as a player, because I think that's what I have to do, trying to become a better tennis player.”
That was said by a man who has only lost 11 times in two years. But seven of those defeats have been at the mighty hands of Alcaraz. As things stand, this final was further evidence for the case that the Spaniard’s greatest level is simply higher than the Italian’s.
There may be plenty of homework ahead for the world no.2 to narrow that gap.
Amanda Progresses
While it’s another major final loss, that would miss the amazing achievements from Amanda Anisimova over the fortnight.
After that painful demolition by Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon, the 24-year-old picked up a few wins in the warm up events before a brilliant surge in New York. Under the lights, Anisimova gained revenge over Swiatek in the quarters, and followed that with a resilient three-set victory over Naomi Osaka in the semis.
In both of those contests, we saw Anisimova’s capacity for astonishing ball striking, particularly off that devastating backhand wing. The factors that hurt her in the final were the quality of her opponent, too many errors (29), and movement that is still below the sport’s elite.
Still, it was a brilliant fortnight that went someway to banish the demons from the All England Club. I really hope Anisimova can keep building from here because she is sublime to watch when it all clicks.
A Measured Decline
I’m not entirely sure what to make of Novak Djokovic’s situation because it’s unique. The narrative, which I agree with, is that he is in decline and can no longer defeat Alcaraz or Sinner over five sets. He has admitted as much himself.
But…
At the age of 38, the Serb ends the season having made the last four of ALL grand slam events for the seventh time in his career. Federer achieved that five times, Nadal on two occasions. Djokovic actually moved up the rankings to fourth after the fortnight, even though he is clearly closer to the top two than the world no.3, Alexander Zverev.
Obviously the decision to retire is entirely his, but you can see why he might hang around given the paucity of real opponents for Alcaraz and Sinner.
Finally, Naomi Returns
Since returning to tennis after maternity leave in 2024, Naomi Osaka mainly tread water in the rankings. The spark in her game just wasn’t there with Patrick Mouratoglu, and she particularly struggled at majors. Before New York, the four-time grand slam winner had not made it to the fourth round of any major since her return.
Thankfully, the Japanese finally ignited at her beloved Flushing Meadows, where she twice lifted the trophy. Over the fortnight, she showed us her uniquely exciting brand of power tennis that we once knew so well.
After what surely must be considered a good trial with Tomasz Wiktorowsk, let's hope that the 27-year-old can keep rising.
Who’s Stepping Up in 2026?
The current hierarchy of men’s tennis reads: Alcaraz/Sinner - Djokovic - - The Rest. So who can close the gap next season? Will anyone?
I’m not really expecting a player to enter the orbit of the top two anytime soon. However, I do hope that Jack Draper in particular can recover from his arm issue and make a real charge at the majors next season. The Brit certainly has the power in his game, but can he stay fit for long enough to challenge?
Ben Shelton can rip the felt off a tennis ball, but can he keep things between the lines for the length required against Alcaraz and Sinner? Unfortunately, while I adore Lorenzo Musetti’s game, I have long suspected that he just doesn’t generate the force required to dislodge the top two. Can he add more?
The likes of Holger Rune, Jakub Mensik, Jiri Lehecka and Joao Fonseca definitely have time on their side. But we have previously seen that the scar tissue of early losses to big names can linger with players throughout their careers. If they develop awful head-to-heads against Alcaraz and Sinner, that can become a habit.
Truth be told, currently no player is in sight of the top two. Let’s hope that changes.
Why Not Both?
It seems an age ago now, but the biggest story of the US Open early on was the revamped mixed doubles competition. In terms of attracting top players and attention, the new format succeeded and brought a fresh energy to the format.
That said, I’m uncomfortable with alienating proper doubles players from grand slams when their income is so dependent on the events.
The joint doubles world no.1s at the end of 2024 earned $1.3 million apiece over the season. Meanwhile, the singles no.1 Jannik Sinner captured $17 million in prize money over the same period.
Of course singles players earn considerably more than doubles players, but why encourage the disparity? Rather than replace the mixed event, why not run both? Hold a shortened, ‘glamour’ event beforehand with the singles stars, then a normal mixed tournament during it.
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