PREVIEW | 2022 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
Beyond the noise, Medvedev and Barty are favourites in Melbourne
With the incessant noise surrounding one player, it's easy to forget that the Australian Open tournament starts on Monday.
There has been an extraordinary buildup to the first major of 2022, entirely overshadowed by the shambles surrounding Novak Djokovic.
But for this piece, let's just focus on the event and the actual tennis.
This year, the overall prize fund for players tops $54 million (US), with $3.2 million for each singles champion. But in yet another last minute twist, updated Covid-19 restrictions will limit both the Rod Laver Arena and Margaret Court Arena to maximum capacities of 50%.
After a peculiar delay before Thursday's ceremony, the 2022 Australian Open draws were thankfully released and there's plenty of great matches to look forward to.
So let's dig in.
Men's Draw
Who knows where we stand? But for the moment, let's run with the inclusion of Novak Djokovic in the draw.
If we purely take on-court ability and track record into account, the world no.1 is clear favourite to lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup for an astonishing 10th time.
But this event will not take place in such a serene scenario.
While the 34-year-old is the master of comebacks and astonishing resilience, surely the combination of setbacks, stress and unwanted attention ahead of the tournament will take a toll on his form?
That said, if Djokovic gets to lace up tennis shoes at Melbourne Park, his draw is reasonable. World no.78 and compatriot Miomir Kecmanovic will not knock the 20-time major winner out in the first round.
The real issues should arrive from the quarters on where the likes of Matteo Berrettini, Cam Norrie, Carlos Alcaraz or his old nemesis, Pablo Carreno Busta, may show up. From there, Djokovic could be in for a blockbuster semi-final with either Alexander Zverev or Rafael Nadal.
Whether Djokovic plays or not, there's probably a reasonable argument that the 'true' favourite for the title at this point is Daniil Medvedev.
With a major title in tow, the 25-year-old has solidified his status as the no.1 in waiting. The Russian has also started this season in encouraging fashion, as he led his nation to an unlikely semi-final run in the ATP Cup.
Medvedev's path to the 2022 Australian Open final is interesting but certainly manageable for a player of his calibre.
While talented, Nick Kyrgios, Botic van de Zandshulp and Diego Schwartzman should not end the title hopes of the world no.2. Andrey Rublev or Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals could be the toughest obstacles for Medvedev. Should the Russian make the last four as expected, Stefanos Tsistsipas, Casper Ruud, Roberto Bautista Agut or in a nice world, Andy Murray, may lie in wait.
For this writer, Alexander Zverev and Rafael Nadal are the other realistic contenders over the coming fortnight.
The world no.3 heads into Melbourne as the reigning Olympic gold medallist and ATP Finals champion. He also knows that he can beat both Djokovic and Medvedev in the right conditions.
The 24-year-old really shouldn't go out in the first week as he has been handed a fairly straightforward draw. It gets mighty tough from there though. To win his first major, Zverev may have to overcome Nadal (quarters), Djokovic (semis) and then Medvedev in the final.
Seemingly recovered from both a foot injury and Covid-19 infection, Nadal could have a decent shot at a sixth Australian Open final appearance.
With victory at a warm-up tournament in Melbourne, the 35-year-old set an all-time record of at least one title a year for 19 consecutive seasons. If healthy, Nadal should have enough to make the second week here.
The destination of the trophy could be highly influenced by that potential quarter-final clash between Nadal and Zverev.
As for the rest of the field, it's probably too early for Stefanos Tsitsipas given his recent elbow surgery. I'm also still unconvinced by Andrey Rublev in grand slams as I still think he needs more variety to beat the very best.
We will hopefully witness further progress from young guns like Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. It will also be interesting to see if Canada's triumph in the ATP Cup can spur on Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov.
And finally, wouldn't it be wonderful to see a deep run from the five-time finalist and all-round good egg, Andy Murray?
Women's Draw
While the WTA rankings system went through a period of stasis, as the pandemic washed over the globe, there is no doubt now who the best female player is.
Ash Barty is 1,700 ranking points ahead of the field and that lead continues to grow thanks to her superlative performances. The 25-year-old captured five titles last year and has already added another in 2022 at Adelaide.
Barty's path to the final looks straightforward until the fourth round, where there could be a blockbuster clash with the defending champion, Naomi Osaka. From there, the Aussie may have to see off Maria Sakkari or Ons Jabeur in the last eight, and Barbora Krejcikova or Paula Badosa in the semis.
Moving to the Japanese, Osaka is just back from an extended break from the game for her mental health. Thankfully, she seems to be in a much more positive place compared to last summer.
However, a deep run this fortnight will be a tough ask for Osaka given the possibility of meeting either Belinda Bencic or Amanda Anisimova before Barty. But with her well established prowess on hard courts, don't count out the 24-year-old.
To the surprise of this writer, it seems unlikely that world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka will play a significant role this coming fortnight.
Since her semi-final loss to Leylah Fernandez at the US Open, the 23-year-old's form has fallen off. Sabalenka lost her opening match of the season in Adelaide and then had a shocker the following week.
Again in Adelaide, Sabalenka's serve imploded with 21 double faults and a number of underarm deliveries. Marketa Vondrousova or Liudmila Samsonova could be ominous 3rd round opponents for her.
Unfortunately, I have similar doubts over Emma Raducanu.
The exciting Brit has struggled to adjust to the tour after her astonishing breakthrough in New York. The 19-year-old has suffered three first round losses in her last four events and was hammered 6-0 6-1 by Elena Rybakina only a few days ago.
Raducanu has plenty of time and talent to fully settle into the WTA tour, but for this fortnight at least, she's unlikely to be a major threat.
As with all women's draws in recent years, there is an excellent chance of a breakthrough winner.
In that category, I would place the likes of Anett Kontaveit, Belinda Bencic, Paula Badosa, Maria Sakkari and Ons Jabeur.
Each of those mentioned can boast of ever improving results and ranking. Kontaveit's game in particular has shifted to another level after four titles in 2021.
And of course, you can never discount the players that have tasted major success before.
Garbine Muguruza, Barbora Krejcikova, Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep are all significant threats on hard courts and should be in the mix.
Finally, we must note some significant absences on the women's side.
for the first time since 1997, there will not be a Williams sister in the main draw. We're still unsure when Serena - a seven-time Australian Open champion - and Venus will return to action. I'd still expect a farewell Wimbledon appearance for both if not more.
Matches To Watch
There are a number of great first round matches to check out. Here are my picks:
Where It's On
If you're in the UK & Ireland, the 2022 Australian Open will be shown on Eurosport from January 17-30.
While you're here, why not subscribe to my free weekly newsletter? It gives you a round up of the latest tennis news along with results, rankings, upcoming tournaments and more!