PREVIEW | US OPEN 2022
Medvedev and Nadal lead men's contenders while Swiatek searches for return to form
After the somewhat specialised surfaces of clay and grass, we finish the 2022 grand slam season with the great leveller: hard courts at Flushing Meadows.
Like Melbourne at the season’s dawn, three-time champion Novak Djokovic will not be a factor in the men’s draw. As expected, the 35-year-old cannot enter the US due to his unvaccinated status and will have to wait until next year to have a chance to add to his 21 majors.
Defending champion Daniil Medvedev will be there though as the USTA has not followed Wimbledon's ban on Russians and Belarusians. The world no.1 leads a strong male cast that also features four-time winner Rafael Nadal
Another aspect that’s similar to the Australian Open is the complete uncertainty of the women’s draw. While Iga Swiatek is very much the world no.1, the Pole’s form has been underwhelming since she lifted the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in early June.
With Swiatek by no means a certainty to win in New York, it could be almost anyone as last year’s victor proved. But given the Brit’s form over the past year, it would be a brave punter that backs Emma Raducanu to repeat.
Maybe the Compton clouds will align and bestow that elusive 24th singles major on Serena Williams in her last professional tournament. I doubt there would be many that would begrudge the 40-year-old ending her career in style. But as we’ve seen in recent years, Williams doesn’t terrify the women’s field like she used to.
Whoever the winner, along with the trophy each singles champion will receive a cheque for $2.6 million. That should help them through the winter as they battle cost of living pressures like the rest of us...But enough cynicism, let’s go through the draws.
Men's Draw
With defending champion and world no.1 Danill Medvedev as top seed, and Roland Garros king Rafael Nadal seeded two, we could be set for a repeat of this year’s Australian Open final.
Since his maiden major in New York last year, Daniil Medvedev has further cemented his status at the summit of the sport. Medvedev has had a good season despite hernia surgery and the Wimbledon ban. Having just won Los Cabos and made the last four at Cincinnati, the 26-year-old comes in with confidence.
Medvedev will start against world no.110 Stefan Kozlov and his route through the draw looks decent until the fourth round. There, he could face either the in-form Nick Kyrgios or Roberto Bautista Agut.
The combustible Aussie followed up his Wimbledon final with a seventh ATP title in Washington. Similarly, Bautista Agut also lifted a trophy after Wimbledon - Kitzbuhel - though his form on the American hard courts hasn’t been as hot.
However, the main point to focus on here is the head-to-head record. Medvedev trails both Kyrgios (1-3) and Bautista Agut (1-4) and has lost to, and beaten, each of them this season. Beyond that stage, a meeting with the Montréal champion Pablo Carreno Busta or Felix Auger-Aliassime could await in the last eight.
The second quarter of the draw looks set to be a bloodbath. While Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud headline the section, they will do well to navigate the likes of Matteo Berrettini, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Maxime Cressy and two former champions in Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.
A finalist in Cincinnati, the Greek comes to New York in good form having beaten Medvedev there. Ruud is also in good shape as he capture the title in Gstaad and made the last four in Montréal. The projected fourth round clashes of Tstisipas-Berrettini and Fritz-Ruud should make for a great watch.
The bottom quarter will be defined by the form and fitness of one man: Rafael Nadal.
Since his unfortunate withdrawal at the Wimbledon semi-final stage, the four-time US Open champion has mostly been nursing an abdominal injury. He returned to play at Cincy where he was slightly unlucky to face the revitalised Borna Coric. The Croatian won that match in three sets and then went on to take the title.
Nadal will start his first US Open campaign since 2019 against the wonderfully named Rinky Hijikata, ranked 198th in the world. So long as he’s fit and in reasonable form, I don’t see the 22-time major winner falling before the last eight despite the talents of Fabio Fognini, Aslan Karatsev, Miomir Kecmanovic, Diego Schwartzman and Frances Tiafoe.
In the quarters, Nadal could face a sterner test in the shape of two-time quarter-finalist Andrey Rublev or Indian Wells winner Cam Norrie. A finalist in Los Cabos and semi-finalist in Cincinnati, Norrie is in the form of his life and could do big things here.
Finally, the third quarter is set to be a fascinating segment.
The mighty Carlos Alcaraz finds himself here and it will be interesting to see what form he can produce. After his blistering start to the season, the 19-year-old is still doing incredible things but with some vulnerability.
After Wimbledon, the Spaniard made finals in Hamburg and Umag where he lost to Lorenzo Musetti and Jannik Sinner respectively. He then exited Montréal early to an inspired Tommy Paul and went out in the quarters of Cincy to Norrie.
Alcaraz is clearly not a dominant force just yet, and he’ll have to find a high gear to escape this quarter. Borna Coric should be a massive obstacle in this section and if Alcaraz gets through that test, he won’t delight in seeing Sinner, Musetti, Hubert Hurkacz or former champion Marin Cilic afterwards.
Women's Draw
There are probably three story lines that will attract the most focus on the women’s side at Flushing Meadows. They concern Iga Swiatek's drop in form, Emma Raducanu’s defence, and how Serena Williams will depart the tournament and sport.
If we start with the world no.1, Iga Swiatek has endured a disappointing run since Roland Garros. After lifting the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen for a second time, the 21-year-old underperformed at Wimbledon (third round), Warsaw (quarters), Toronto and Cincinnati (both round of 16).
Is it just a minor drop in form or something more? In a press conference ahead of the event, Swiatek described herself as “nervous” in Toronto and Cincinnati but feels that she can “lower [her] expectations and just focus on improving and on tennis”.
The Pole has a tricky route here to the second week. She could face former champion Sloane Stephens in the second round and while the American is a frustratingly inconsistent force, she pushed Swiatek in Cincinnati. From there, the path to the quarters is littered with potentially tough competitors like Petra Kvitova, Jessie Pegula, Jelena Ostapenko, Sofia Kenin and Amanda Anisimova.
However, the player I’ll be monitoring in that section is Qinwen Zheng.
The 19-year-old is a rising superstar from China who has jumped from 126th in the rankings at the start of the year, to inside the top 40. If Zheng can get through her opener with Ostapenko, I think she can do a lot of damage in this quarter.
If we move onto the second quarter, we meet the defending champion, media superstar, and someone who could really do with a good run: Emma Raducanu.
You hardly need this writer to point out that the 19-year-old has struggled to match the form and results of her historic breakthrough over the past 12 months. A steady stream of niggling injuries, coaching changes and inconsistent performances have curtailed Raducanu’s development with only 15 match wins in that time.
That said, Raducanu’s form has picked up a little in recent weeks and she was genuinely impressive in her victories over Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka in Cincinnati. She’ll need that confidence to continue in New York as famed giant killer Alizé Cornet makes for an awful first round opponent.
If Raducanu can make it to the second week, I think that would be a good return given the circumstances. But it won’t come easy. The Brit’s quarter contains Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, former winner Naomi Osaka, former finalist Karolina Pliskova, Paula Badosa, Belinda Bencic and Aryna Sabalenka.
In her final professional tournament, where she will also compete in doubles with sister Venus, Serena Williams has landed in the bottom quarter.
The six-time US Open winner will fancy her chances in the opener with world no.80 Danka Kovinic. From there though, her path to the second week could read world no.2 Anett Kontaveit (second round) and Karolina Muchova (third round).
That already looks to be a formidable challenge for the 40-year-old without contemplating a possible fourth round clash with last year’s finalist Leylah Fernandez, former Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova or Cleveland winner Liudmila Samsonova.
While it would be a wonderful closing chapter for Williams to make it out of the quarter, I think it’s more realistic to look towards those mentioned above along with Ons Jabeur, Veronika Kudermetova and the red hot Daria Kasatkina.
Finally, the third quarter features a number of players who’ve hit form simultaneously. While Maria Sakkari is the highest seed at no.3, the ones to watch here are Simona Halep, Beatriz Haddad Maia and Caroline Garcia.
Former world no.1 Simona Halep has been revitalised under the guidance of Patrick Mouratoglu and has earned her way back to the WTA’s top 10 with excellent performances throughout the season. She just lifted the title in Toronto and should be a formidable force over the fortnight.
Beatriz Haddad Maia, the finalist in Toronto, is having a career best season. The Brazilian has leapt up the rankings to no.15 after recording over 40 victories on tour and capturing titles at Nottingham and Birmingham.
As for Caroline Garcia, the Frenchwoman looks reborn in recent months. The 28-year-old is back to her best this summer and has already collected titles in Bad Homburg, Warsaw and Cincinnati.
Along with Coco Gauff and Madison Keys, these three ladies will probably decide the outcome of this quarter.
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