PREVIEW | 2023 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

Djokovic on course for title no.10 in Melbourne while Swiatek and Pegula lead women's field

By Stephen Higgins | 15th January 2023

You could argue that the 2023 Australian Open will be as noteworthy for its absences as for the competitors involved. With both Roger Federer and Serena Williams now retired, Melbourne will not witness two of most signficant figures in the sport's history with 13 Aussie Open titles between them.

Then there's two of the leading lights of women's tennis in recent years, Ash Barty and Naomi Osaka. After achieving a childhood dream of winning her home grand slam, then world no.1 Barty sadly retired from the sport in March 2022. She will be at Melbourne Park for this year's championships as a mentor to Olivia Gadecki, all while expecting her first child. Osaka is also pregnant and let's hope she returns to the tour in 2024 as planned.

Despite these high profile departures, there's plenty to be excited about at the 111th Australian Open. Let's dig into the draws where singles players will battle for a winners cheque worth $3 million Australian Dollars (approx. €2 million).

Men's Draw

With world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz sadly absent through injury, Rafael Nadal is the top seed and defending champion in Melbourne this year. However, I wouldn’t retain huge confidence that we’ll see the mighty Mallorcan at the business end of this year’s Open.

The 36-year-old does not come into the event brimming with confidence after six defeats in his last seven matches. “The real thing is I have been losing more than usual. Yeah, that's the truth. I need to live with it and just fight for the victories,” Nadal said on the eve of the tournament.

While we should never write off the 22-time major winner, he has a brutal draw to contend with in the top quarter.

Nadal faces the rising British star Jack Draper in his opener, with the winner of that bout likely to face the impressive 2022 Next Gen Finals winner Brandon Nakashima in round two. In order to get to the final, Nadal may have to get through Frances Tiafoe (fourth round), who beat him at last year’s US Open, and 2022 Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev (QF).

Short of full confidence and form, I’m not sure even the legendary Spaniard can overcome all of those hurdles.

Last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev isn’t quite at his 2021 level but he has a reasonable draw to work with. There’s a handy start for the Russian but talented Adelaide finalist Sebastian Korda could be a noteworthy obstacle in round three. On reputation, we’re likely to see Medvedev take on Nadal in the last eight but I have my doubts.

Amongst the other contenders in the top half, frequent semi-finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas has landed in a promising section and will probably duke it out with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jannik Sinner for the second quarter spoils.

The bottom half is all about the nine-time champion who returns to Australia after his dramatic deportation twelve months ago, Novak Djokovic. The former world no.1 is fourth seed here but should really be considered the clear favourite given his record at Melbourne Park and recent results.

Despite the possibility of a frosty reception Down Under, the 35-year-old has enjoyed the warm-up to the Open and captured his 92nd career title at Adelaide last week. Djokovic’s mood can only have been helped by his appetising draw.

Providing that his hamstring holds up, Djokovic shouldn’t endure too much strain through the first three rounds. Pablo Carreno Busta or Alex de Minaur may challenge him in the fourth round but with a predictable victor. In the last eight, there could be a tricky and key clash against Nick Kyrgios, Holger Rune or maybe Andrey Rublev. Casper Ruud, Matteo Berrettini or Taylor Fritz may await in the last four and I think the Serb would savour those matchups.

While I mentioned Casper Ruud in that mix, the world no.3 actually has a rotten path to the latter stages. Early on, Jenson Brooksby and Tommy Paul make for an interesting pair of American banana peels and he’ll do extremely well to get through both Berrettini and Fritz. On recent evidence, I feel that Fritz will emerge from the bottom quarter.

Finally, Alexander Zverev is still in the early stages of rehab after his severe ankle injury at Roland Garros last year. I wouldn’t expect too much from him here, particularly based on his performances at the United Cup. Let’s hope that the same isn’t true for Dominic Thiem, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka.

Women's Draw

World no.1 Iga Swiatek enters the 2023 Australian Open off the back of a superb season where she claimed two grand slams and recorded 67 victories (including that 37-match streak). But despite those records, there’s a scintilla of doubt around the Pole.

After dominant performances in the group stage of the WTA Finals, the 21-year-old was overpowered by Aryna Sabalenka in the semis. Then, earlier this month, Swiatek was comfortably beaten by Jessie Pegula in the United Cup. These may well be aberrations but when you glance at the Pole’s draw, it’s clear that she’ll need to rediscover top form to reach the final here.

Julie Niemeier, who took Swiatek to three sets at last year’s US Open, makes for a difficult first round opponent. Beyond that, the world no.1’s section includes reigning Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, former major winner Bianca Andreescu, last year’s finalist Danielle Collins and a pair of tricky Czechs in Karolina Muchova and Marie Bouzkova.

There’s no doubt that on form, Swiatek is the best in the women’s game. She’ll need to hit that gear to earn the chance to at least replicate last year’s semi-final run.

Elsewhere in the top quarter, the chief names that stand out are Coco Gauff, Emma Raducanu and Qinwen Zheng. Gauff secured the third title of her career at the Auckland warm-up event but I still have doubts that her game has the durability required to match the likes of Swiatek just yet. With Emma Raducanu nursing an ankle injury, I think the impressive Zheng is the one to watch in this section.

The second quarter will likely revolve around the second favourite for the title, Jessie Pegula. While her 2022 season ended in disappointment at the WTA Finals (where she didn’t win a match), the American has recovered her zest for competition early in 2023 and was an integral part of her country’s United Cup triumph.

The 28-year-old should be solid enough to make it through to the last eight unscathed but there are potential threats in the shape of Barbora Krejcikova, Petra Kvitova and Amanda Anisimova. If Pegula makes it to the quarters as expected, her opponent would probably be Maria Sakkari or Madison Keys unless 2020 champion Sofia Kenin can rediscover the old magic.

With the two favourites for the title in the top half of the draw, the bottom half is logically a more open affair.

World no.2 and two-time major finalist Ons Jabeur is one of the star names in the bottom quarter and will hope to do better than her previous best quarter-final run at Melbourne Park in 2020.

If the Tunisian is on song, her section is manageable though Marketa Vondrousova and Kaia Kanepi cannot be underestimated in the early rounds. From there, potential clashes with one of the players of last season, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Donna Vekic or Liudmila Samsonova should all be tricky.

Even if Jabeur breezes through to the last eight, she will not look forward to the prospect of probably facing Aryna Sabalenka across the net.

After a season that veered towards shambolic at times, the Belarusian regained her powers by the end of 2022 and has started this year in the same vein. Sabalenka added an 11th title to her trophy cabinet in Adelaide and has an excellent path here bar the prospect of Belinda Bencic in round four.

Finally, the third quarter is headlined by WTA Finals winner Caroline Garcia and the rejuvenated Daria Kasatkina. In truth, both Garcia and Kasatkina should probably make it to the last eight but we all know how these draws can go! If one or both fall, it may well be due to Alizé Cornet, Veronika Kudermetova, Anett Kontaveit or maybe Sorana Cirstea.