PREVIEW | INDIAN WELLS 2023

While Swiatek still leads the pack, the men's title looks there for the taking in the desert

By Stephen Higgins | 8th March 2023

We come to the 2023 edition of the ‘fifth major’ in a state of flux, though that is more pronounced on the men’s side than the women’s.

Since 2004, the Indian Wells Masters has been played 18 times with the 2020 edition notoriously cancelled due to Covid-19. During those years, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Juan Martin del Potro were responsible for 15 of the 18 title wins.

This year, none of them will compete in the desert.

Djokovic was unsuccessful with his appeal to the US Government to gain entry to the country despite his unvaccinated status while Nadal is still recuperating from injury and set to return for the clay swing. Sadly, we know why the other two stars will not compete.

Without that formidable star power, it’s very much an open contest between the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and several others.

As for the women’s side, Iga Swiatek is still the leading force on tour but there is now a solid supporting cast to test her in Aryna Sabalenka, Jessie Pegula, Barbora Krejcikova and the revitalised Elena Rybakina.

This year, each singles champion will receive a cheque for over $1.25 million, a thousand ranking points, and a whole lot of confidence as the tours head to Miami and beyond.

Men's Draw

World no.1 Novak Djokovic is a five-time champion in Indian Wells so his absence leaves quite a vacuum. One man hoping to fill that space is world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz.

The outrageously talented 19-year-old only returned from injury in February but made quite an impression. Alcaraz won his first event back (Buenos Aires) and made the final of the next (Rio). Unfortunately, the Spaniard tweaked his hamstring in the latter final and was forced to pull out of Acapulco.

While Alcaraz’s fitness is a little in question, he will be encouraged by a somewhat inviting draw this fortnight. Unless he is really ailing, you would not expect the US Open champion to fall in the early rounds. He could face an intriguing fourth round contest against one of a group of British talents: former finalist Andy Murray, Dan Evans or Jack Draper. The off-form Pablo Carreno Busta should not be discounted from that section either.

Should Alcaraz make the last eight, he'll likely face a stern challenge from Aussie Open semi-finalist Tommy Paul, Marseille champ Hubert Hurkacz or one of the standout players of last season, Felix Auger-Aliassime. All three men will have notions that a potential escape route from the quarter exists if Alcaraz is below his best.

The second quarter is more unpredictable as it contains the defending champion Taylor Fritz, Acapulco winner Alex de Minaur, Montpellier titlist Jannik Sinner, Holger Rune and Borna Coric. But that’s not all. This quarter also contains rising American star Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Musetti and two former major winners in Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem. Expect some carnage here!

The third quarter is all about one superstar who actually has a subpar record in the desert. Daniil Medvedev could not be in better form as he travels to California with three new trophies in his luggage from Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai.

While the Russian has tasted success at numerous outdoor hard events including Flushing Meadows, Cincinnati and Toronto, he is yet to make the last eight at Indian Wells. Unless the 27-year-old is completely exhausted from recent exertions, I expect him to improve on that record this year.

While Medvedev’s section includes good players like Roberto Bautista Agut and Brandon Nakashima, the real wildcard is Alexander Zverev. The German is still getting up to speed after his long injury lay-off but progress has accelerated. Zverev won three matches in Dubai and will turn on the old magic sometime soon.

Should Medvedev make the last eight, his opponent may not be the third seed Casper Ruud. After an epic 2022 campaign, the Norwegian has struggled so far this year and exited early in Melbourne and Acapulco. Karen Khachanov looks to me like a 6’ 6” banana peel in that section and he could make it through.

The final quarter is another one that could fall to a few men. Australian Open finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas is top dog here but a shoulder injury ruled him out of Acapulco and we don’t know how he's really feeling yet. Maxime Cressy would be a tricky obstacle for the Greek in round three.

If Tsitsipas, who doesn’t have a great record in Indian Wells, falls short, I’d say Cam Norrie or Andrey Rublev are most likely to take advantage. Norrie won this event in 2021 and is in scintillating form with a title (Rio) and two finals (Auckland, Buenos Aires) already this year. A semi-finalist last year, Rublev should have a say in this quarter after just making the championship match in Dubai.

Women's Draw

12 months ago, Iga Swiatek was in the middle of that 37-match winning streak and Indian Wells fell prey to the Pole. Nowadays, while still the WTA Tour’s dominant player, Swiatek has shown some frailty.

After an excellent week in Dubai where she dispatched opponents in straight sets, the 21-year-old was then convincingly beaten by Barbora Krejcikova in the final. This followed other recent defeats to Elena Rybakina (Australian Open), Jessie Pegula (United Cup) and Aryna Sabalenka (WTA Finals).

That group leads the chasing pack behind the world no.1 but Swiatek will not have to worry about their presence until the semi-final stage. Early on, the Pole should advance relatively comfortably. Bianca Andreescu and Beatriz Haddad Maia aren’t really in the right form to topple Swiatek but she might encounter some sort of challenge from compatriot Magda Linette in the fourth round.

Looking ahead to the last eight, it’s likely to be a battle between Caroline Garcia and Liudmila Samsonova for the right to take on the world’s no.1. While the Frenchwoman has slightly declined from her outrageous late-2022 level, she just made a second final of the season in Monterrey. Samsonova made the title match in Abu Dhabi last month and her powerful strokes can challenge anyone on her day.

Moving on to the second quarter, it looks extremely open. Ons Jabeur, who went out in the second round of the Australian Open, is only back from minor knee surgery and will need time to recover. Meanwhile, Daria Kasatkina and Paula Badosa are both struggling to rediscover the form of last year.

This section will probably be defined by two players: Victoria Azarenka and Elena Rybakina.

The Belarusian has won this title twice and should still have confidence in her bag after that excellent Australian Open run. As for Rybakina, so long as her withdrawal from Dubai was precautionary, certainly has the game to be successful here.

On paper, the third quarter seems ripe for a Jessie Pegula charge. On current form, the American looks too strong for Maria Sakkari, Petra Kvitova or Karolina Pliskova. She may be wary though of Mérida winner Camila Giorgi and Jelena Ostapenko, two players who sometimes find an untouchable level of hitting.

Finally, the fourth quarter is set to be a terrific spectacle with four of the WTA Tour’s hottest players duking it out.

Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka can certainly improve on her previous best effort (4th round) in the desert. Monterrey victor Donna Vekic, a potential third round opponent, may have other ideas though and could upset the world no.2.

Should the Belarusian survive that test, Barbora Krejcikova could await in a blockbuster round four. The Czech is in supreme form right now and enjoyed a spectacular week in Dubai where she beat the world’s top three to take the title. Belinda Bencic, who already has two titles in 2023 (Adelaide, Abu Dhabi), completes this remarkably competitive section.