PREVIEW | ROLAND GARROS 2021
It could be title no.14 for Nadal as Barty and Swiatek lead the women's field
In a sign of the unusual times on tour, the 2021 edition of Roland Garros takes place less than eight months after the last one.
Back in that damp October, Rafael Nadal overwhelmed Novak Djokovic for title no.13 while Iga Swiatek, unseeded and just 19, obliterated the field to earn her first major.
This year, the French Open will begin on Sunday (May 30th) and include night matches for the first time. A magnificent statue of the King of the Clay has also been added to the grounds.
In terms of personnel, we will not see former champions Simona Halep (calf injury) and Stan Wawrinka (post foot surgery). We are also missing Andy Murray, Juan Martin del Potro, Denis Shapovalov and Nick Kyrgios for various reasons.
As for those attending, there are question marks over traditional heavyweights like Roger Federer, Serena Williams, Dominic Thiem and Garbine Muguruza.
An extraordinary draw, unveiled on Thursday afternoon, only adds to the intrigue. So let’s get to it.
Men’s Draw
Coming into the tournament, there was some debate over Nadal’s seeding.
The Mallorcan, who has lifted the Coupe des Mousquetaires on 13 occasions, is seeded third this year in line with the ATP rankings.
In an extraordinary twist, Nadal, Djokovic and Federer have all been drawn in the top half. It’s the first time that’s ever happened at a grand slam.
Plotting it out, we could have a 51st Djokovic-Federer clash in the last eight, with the victor taking on Nadal in the semi. Before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at their potential routes.
Rafael Nadal
With a 100-2 record at Roland Garros, it would be a shock of gargantuan proportions if Nadal exited in the early rounds.
However, Rome semi-finalist Lorenzo Sonego may pose some questions in the third round before the riveting prospect of Jannik Sinner in the round of 16.
Presuming that the King of Clay retains his throne through the first week, he’ll likely face Andrey Rublev or Aslan Karatsev in the quarters, then Djokovic in the semis.
Novak Djokovic
The world no.1 has a pretty enticing route through this year’s tournament.
It’s hard to see him truly ruffled by Tennys Sandgren (opener), Pablo Cuevas (potential second round), Ugo Humbert (third) or David Goffin (fourth). Things will heat up in the last eight where Federer, or Belgrade winner Matteo Berrettini, may await.
That said, I’ll guess that there’s an 11th French Open semi-final in Djokovic’s future.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
With Thiem struggling to rediscover form, Tsitsipas is clearly the third best player on clay right now. The 22-year-old has already won 16 matches on the surface this year including two titles (Monte-Carlo, Lyon).
Sitting pretty in the bottom half and brimming with confidence, Tsitsipas has a tremendous opportunity this fortnight.
Barring a disaster, he should not come unstuck in the first week.
The world no.5 may get Pablo Carreno Busta in the fourth round before possible clashes with Cristian Garin (quarters), and then Thiem/Alexander Zverev/Casper Ruud in the semis.
Dominic Thiem
Given his early exits in Rome and Lyon, it will take a remarkable effort for the former finalist to go all the way here.
On current form, Thiem will struggle to overcome Marton Fucsovics in the third round, and likely lose to Ruud in the fourth.
The Austrian is in need of a Wawrinka-like surge of inspiration.
The Rest
With his gaze firmly on manicured lawns, a Roland Garros run would be a bonus for Federer. Depending on the 39-year-old’s level of play, Taylor Fritz (third), Matteo Berrettini/Felix Auger-Aliassime (fourth), or Djokovic (quarters) are probable end points.
It’s unlikely that anyone else can win the title but don’t be surprised if Ruud, Geneva winner and a clay maestro, wreaks havoc.
Zverev may also make a dent if he can contain those service wobbles.
Women’s Draw
While we may continue the five-year streak of maiden grand slam winners in Paris, there are two clear frontrunners for the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen and they’ve both lifted it before.
Ash Barty
The world no.1 has put to bed any questions over her ranking thanks to extremely consistent results since Melbourne. Champion in Miami and Stuttgart, the 25-year-old is the most consistent female across all surfaces at the moment.
While she retired from Rome with an arm complaint, Barty said on Friday that it’s a longstanding problem and won’t be an issue. If that’s true, reaching the second week should almost be a formality for the 2019 winner.
Parma champion Coco Gauff could provide a severe challenge in the fourth round. Should Barty make the last eight, take your pick from Elina Svitolina, Karolina Pliskova or Karolina Muchova before a possible blockbuster with Swiatek in the semis.
Iga Swiatek
The defending champion returns to the Bois de Boulogne in fine shape after capturing the Rome title. While her run there wasn’t a breeze, Swiatek annihilated Pliskova in the final and delivered a rare double bagel.
When on form, the 19-year-old is nigh on unbeatable. She won’t require top gear in her opening matches here, but banana peels loom.
While out of form, Anett Kontaveit is a dodgy opponent to face in the third round, particularly since the Estonian holds a 2-0 head-to-head lead over the Pole. From there, former champion Muguruza may wait in the fourth round. The Spaniard is also off-colour but did beat Swiatek in Dubai.
Swiatek’s potential quarter-final opponents include Sofia Kenin, Elise Mertens, Maria Sakkari and Jessie Pegula.
Retainting the trophy is a big ask for the teenager but she certainly has the talent and composure to do so.
Naomi Osaka
It’s a simple equation for the Japanese: if she wants to regain that top ranking, results will have to improve on clay and grass. Amazingly, Osaka has only won 19 clay matches in her WTA career. Swiatek has won 22 and is four years younger.
With the favourites drawn together in the top half, this is an excellent chance for Osaka to make the second week in Paris for the first time.
The 23-year-old’s draw is appetising and she may not reach an in-form player until the last eight. Bianca Andreescu (quarters) and Aryna Sabalenka (semis) may be on the horizon though.
Aryna Sabalenka
If there is to be another first-time major winner in Paris, the Belarusian looks like the best pick. Sabalenka has put together a fine season with titles in Abu Dhabi and Madrid propelling her to a career high ranking of four.
Known for her blazing power, the 23-year-old has improved her consistency and variety in recent months. Given that form, it would be disappointing if Sabalenka fails to reach the last eight, if not the semis here.
The Rest
For Serena Williams, I think she comes in with too few matches on her worst surface. A decent draw will allow her to move through the first week, but then there are multiple players who can beat her.
Beyond those mentioned, I’d keep a keen eye on form players like Gauff, Belgrade winner Paula Badosa, Barbora Krejcikova and Jessie Pegula.
