PREVIEW | WIMBLEDON 2021
While Djokovic is overwhelming favourite in the men’s, it looks like another wide open women’s draw
After its unprecedented cancellation in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, The Championships returns this fortnight for the 134th edition.
Along with the play on court, Wimbledon 2021 will also host crowds again. Organisers can allow 50% capacity early on with the hopes of a full centre court for the singles finals. This will be allied with the usual control efforts of masks, distancing and hygiene.
While fans will return to South London for the fortnight, the event is unfortunately shorn of some big names.
Defending champion Simona Halep couldn’t recover in time from a calf injury, Rafael Nadal had too little time after Roland Garros, and Naomi Osaka is on a break before the Olympics. And there’s also poor Dominic Thiem, whose nightmare 2021 season has been compounded by a wrist injury on the eve of Wimbledon.
For those remaining, prize money has only fallen by 5% since the 2019 Championships. £1.7 million will be awarded to each singles champion.
Let’s take a look at the singles draws in more detail.
MEN'S DRAW
In a situation fast resembling the Australian Open, it looks likely that Wimbledon hangs on one question: can anyone stop Novak?
Novak Djokovic is of course the defending champion from 2019 and has won four of the last six editions.
The world no.1 arrives at SW19 brimming with confidence after capturing his second Roland Garros title a few weeks back. Now on 19 career majors, the Serb is on course for an extremely rare ‘Calendar Slam’.
The 34-year-old will start his Wimbledon campaign against 19-year-old Jack Draper. From there, it’s hard to make a genuine argument for any opponent worrying him before the quarter-finals.
In the last eight, Djokovic is projected to meet Halle finalist Andrey Rublev, Diego Schwartzman, Jannik Sinner or Fabio Fognini. I’m not sure that the 19-time major winner will fear any of those options so expect semi-final appearance no.10.
It’s much tougher to predict who could join the world no.1 there.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is top dog in the second quarter of the draw but he has little heritage on grass. The Roland Garros finalist has only one fourth round and two first round exits on his Wimbledon CV. Can he go further this year?
If Tsitsipas fails to make the semis, potential alternatives include 2019 semi-finalist Roberto Bautista Agut, Eastbourne champion Alex de Minaur, Queen’s semi-finalist Denis Shapovalov, British no.1 Dan Evans or perhaps, if he finally catches a break, Andy Murray.
As for the bottom half of the men’s draw, it’s extremely competitive and all sorts of chaos could ensue.
World no.2 Daniil Medvedev leads the field and will certainly feel smug after his first grass court title in Mallorca.
The Russian looks on course for a blockbuster third round clash with former finalist Marin Cilic. After a downturn, the Croatian is back in form having won the Stuttgart event a few weeks back.
Beyond those two, this half is intriguing given the presence of numerous players who like green on their soles.
And then of course, there’s Roger.
To be frank, you cannot overstate how poor Roger Federer looked in Halle as he was bounced out by Auger-Aliassime in his second match. The performance was shocking enough for the 20-time major winner that he had to gather his thoughts before doing press.
The eight-time Wimbledon champion can of course be a factor this fortnight, but he needs to find a healthy dash of the old magic. Federer is set to start against Mannarino and may have to overcome Richard Gasquet, Cam Norrie and Querrey just to make the last eight.
In previous years, that’s an entirely manageable route. But what about the 39-year-old version after two knee surgeries? I guess we’ll find out.
WOMEN'S DRAW
As a former junior champion with an optimal game for the surface, you would expect Ash Barty to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish sooner rather than later. Will it be this year?
Unfortunately, the Australian arrived in London with doubt as a hip problem caused her retirement from Roland Garros. With no warm up matches on grass, Barty says that she is “fit [and] ready to play” after rehab.
The 25-year-old’s opener will be emotional for a number of reasons.
Given Halep’s withdrawal, Barty will have the honour of opening Centre Court play on Tuesday. She will face Carla Suarez Navarro there, who has overcome cancer to bid a proper farewell to tennis. It’s also 50 years since Evonne Goolagong Cawley’s triumph at SW19 and the world no.1 will wear a special outfit in homage to the Aussie legend.
If all that isn’t enough, Barty may have to go through 2017 semi-finalist Jo Konta and Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova just to make the second week. With all those hurdles cleared, we could be on for the first Australian ladies champion since Cawley in 1980.
Two former champions are the other prime candidates for success in the top half.
In a similar vein to Federer, it’s not entirely clear where Serena Williams is at right now.
The 39-year-old looked decent in her first three matches at Roland Garros before Elena Rybakina’s firepower proved too much. If the American is to win another major, it will probably be at the venue where she has won eight times before.
After struggling for form all season, Angelique Kerber sprang into life on the grass of Bad Homburg. It is the 33-year-old’s first title since...Wimbledon 2018.
Williams and Kerber are projected to meet in the third round and that bout could decide the direction of the top half. But as we have seen so often, don’t discount the women’s field.
In the top half, I’d pay particular attention to 2018 semi-finalist Jelena Ostapenko, 2019 quarter-finalist Karolina Muchova, Birmingham finalist Daria Kasatkina and Eastbourne finalist Anett Kontaveit.
The bottom half is even more volatile as it features few players with proven grass court pedigree and far more without it.
The half could really open up for two-time champion Petra Kvitova if she can make it past Sloane Stephens in a tricky opener. It’s a similar opportunity for 2017 winner Garbine Muguruza, though her form has been patchy of late.
Aryna Sabalenka is second seed this year and while the Belarusian has recorded some fine wins on grass, she has so far flattered to deceive in the majors. Until she changes that, one must remain sceptical.
There is also the former junior champion Iga Swiatek to consider.
The Pole’s winning streak at Roland Garros stalled and she will surely hope to regain momentum here for the rest of the summer. That could be easier said than done though. While the Pole is capable of magnificence on any court, Swiatek is yet to win a main draw match at Wimbledon.
Finally, from the bottom half, keep an eye on Elena Rybakina who I think could do some real damage this year. And watch out for Maria Sakkari, Birmingham champion Ons Jabeur and the surprise Berlin champion, Liudmila Samsonova.