PREVIEW | 2023 ATP FINALS

Can Alcaraz or Medvedev stop Djokovic's charge to a seventh title?

By Stephen Higgins | 11th November 2023

After the shambolic weather conditions at the WTA Finals in Cancun, it will be refreshing to watch the top men compete this week under the Pala Alpitour roof in Turin.

Novak Djokovic, who now commands an 80% career winning record indoors, will no doubt bask in the calm conditions. The Serb seeks to defend his crown and earn a record-breaking seventh ATP Finals title. The 36-year-old is currently tied with Roger Federer on six, the pair one ahead of both Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras.

Djokovic is one of four previous champions at this year’s event along with Alexander Zverev (2018, 2021), Daniil Medvedev (2020) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (2019). This will be the fourth Finals appearance for Andrey Rublev, and the first proper one for the terrific trio of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Holger Rune.

The draw was made on Thursday with the eight players split into groups Green and Red. Djokovic leads the former alongside Sinner, Tsitsipas and Rune, while the latter contains Alcaraz, Medvedev, Rublev and Zverev.

Apart from the prestige of winning, the singles champion will receive $2.2 million for triumphing in the final, or a whopping $4.8 million if they go undefeated through the event. Djokovic only needs to win a match to clinch the year-end no.1 accolade for a record seventh time. That would also put him on course for 400 weeks as the world’s best.

Green Group

It takes a brave man to go against six-time winner Novak Djokovic here, and this writer shall not stray into the unknown. This will be the Serb’s 16th appearance at the ATP Finals and he has only failed to clear the group stage once (2019) in his past 10 outings.

The seemingly ageless 36-year-old has enjoyed another spectacular season with six title wins including three of the four grand slams (Australian Open, Roland Garros and the US Open). He was of course a match away from winning Wimbledon but for an epic performance from Carlos Alcaraz.

Djokovic has a solid 3-0 record against Sinner, a cruel 11-2 lead over Tsitsipas, and an intriguing 2-2 tie with Rune head-to-head. It looks to be a competition for second in the Green Group and that’s an open spot.

Jannik Sinner has had an outstanding season with four titles (Montpellier, Toronto, Beijing and Vienna) all on hard courts. The Italian should be suitably rested after withdrawing early from Paris due to subpar scheduling. Interestingly, Sinner has a negative head-to-head against all three of his group opponents so there is work to do.

It’s hard to make a grand claim for Stefanos Tsitsipas to progress as the Greek has struggled at this event in recent years. The champion back in 2019, Tsitsipas hasn’t made it past the group stage since. 2023 was another solid year for the 25-year-old with a run to the Australian Open final the chief highlight. You’d fear for him if he loses badly to Sinner in their opener.

Finally, Holger Rune is a deserving qualifier after his superb summer outweighed an underwhelming autumn. The 20-year-old clinched the title in Munich and enjoyed impressive runs in various locales including Monte-Carlo (final), Rome (final), Queen’s (semis), Roland Garros (QF) and Wimbledon (QF). Now under the tutelage of Boris Becker, it will be fascinating to see how the Dane gets on, particularly given his healthy head-to-head against the rest of the group.

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Red Group

While the Green Group smells like a Djokovic procession, the Red Group should be much more unpredictable.

After delighting fans across the globe with his unique combination of skill, athleticism and charisma, we will finally get to see Carlos Alcaraz at the Finals. The Spaniard did qualify for last year’s edition but was forced to pull out beforehand with a muscle tear.

2023 has seen an exciting duel between the 20-year-old and Djokovic for the no.1 spot. While the veteran is set to end the season on top, Alcaraz can be very proud of his efforts. This season’s Wimbledon champion also secured five other titles across three surfaces.

All that said, having endured a mighty 73 matches already this year, I worry that Alcaraz will be too fatigued for Turin. His run-in has been patchy with a deep run in Beijing weighed against early losses in Shanghai and Paris.

Daniil Medvedev is certainly capable of taking advantage if Alcaraz is below par. The 2020 champion is here for the fifth time and comes in off the back of excellent runs in Beijing and Vienna where he made both finals. The Russian was red hot early in the season and accrued titles in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, Miami and Rome. Medvedev has a positive head-to-head against Rublev and Zverev, and is tied 2-2 with Alcaraz.

2023 has been another solid year for Andrey Rublev and the Russian is an ATP Finals qualifier for the fourth year running. The 26-year-old captured two titles this season (Monte-Carlo, Bastad) and had deep runs all over the place. His major quarter-final hoodoo continues but Rublev comes to Turin Comes in fine fettle with strong showings in Shanghai (F), Vienna (SF) and Paris (SF).

Finally, we come to a two-time champion who has found his way back on court after a dreadful ankle injury suffered at Roland Garros last year. Alexander Zverev, who faces serious allegations (which he denies) off court, has rediscovered his form this year with titles in Hamburg and Chengdu. Zverev also enjoyed deep runs at Roland Garros (SF) and the US Open (QF) and could well be a factor here.