PREVIEW | US OPEN 2023

Alcaraz and Djokovic battle for men's title as Swiatek looks to defend her crown

By Stephen Higgins | 28th August 2023

The final grand slam of the year in New York brings an interesting proposition: the two defending singles champions (and world no.1s) are not clear favourites for the event.

A year on from his maiden major success at Flushing Meadows, Carlos Alcaraz still sits atop the rankings but his form has been patchy of late. On the other hand, Cincinnati champion Novak Djokovic looks primed for another run at grand slam no.24 and wait until you see his draw!

The Serb will take over as world no.1 simply by winning his opening round as the 36-year-old has no points to defend from last season compared with Alcaraz’s 2,000.

Meanwhile, on the women’s side, Iga Swiatek hasn’t been entirely convincing since she lifted the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in June. The Pole's form has fluctuated and she lost in the semi-finals of both Montréal and Cincinnati to Jessie Pegula and Coco Gauff respectively.

Like Alcaraz, the Pole can also relinquish her no.1 ranking if she fares worse than Aryna Sabalenka at the event.

Both superstars will hope to find a source of renewal amongst the noisy backdrop of Queen’s. Should they need an added incentive, each singles winner will receive a cheque for $3 million this time around.

Let’s dig into the draws.

Men's Draw

Carlos Alcaraz will aim to win a second major of the season, and third overall, after his Roland Garros triumph earlier in the summer. While his early matches are enticing, the second week looks awfully daunting for the obscenely talented 20-year-old.

The Spaniard starts against world no.75 Dominik Koepfer and shouldn’t have too much trouble until the fourth round where Cam Norrie or Tallon Griekspoor could pose a reasonable challenge. From there, it gets substantially more difficult.

Alcaraz may have to go through Jannik Sinner or Alexander Zverev in the quarters, then 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev in the last four just to earn a crack at (presumably) Novak Djokovic in the final. It’s a tough path for the Murcian and he's not quite in top form: seven of Alcaraz’s last eight matches went to three sets.

In that tricky top quarter, Sinner and Zverev are the ones to watch beyond the world no.1. The Italian is in great form having just won the biggest title of his career in Toronto. As for Zverev, the German is getting back to full speed and enjoyed a title run in Hamburg before his semi-final berth in Cincinnati. 2012 winner Andy Murray is also in there and can hopefully put some wins together.

The second quarter is likely to be all about Daniil Medvedev as the world no.3 aims to join the conversation with the two men above him in the rankings. That said, the Russian has not enjoyed a stellar hard court swing so far and his path here is choppy.

The 27-year-old has only managed three wins since Wimbledon so Cincinnati quarter-finalist Max Purcell could make for an awkward second rounder. Then, Winston-Salem champion Sebastian Baez or 2020 quarter-finalist Borna Coric should not be underestimated in a possible third round clash. To make the semis, Medvedev may have to navigate through Alex de Minaur (fourth round) and Andrey Rublev (quarters). That’s a tough run before you even reach Alcaraz.

Before we move on, the perennially underrated grand slam maestro Karen Khachanov is in this section too so keep an eye.

If we go to the bottom half, there is Novak Djokovic, licking his lips over one of the best draws he’s ever received. The three-time winner has such a routine path through the opening rounds that they’re not worth discussing.

Potential fourth round opponents for the 36-year-old include the out-of-form Felix Auger-Aliassime, Mackenzie McDonald or Francisco Cerundolo. The quarter-finals could have Djokovic clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas - who he leads 11-2 in the head-to-head - or Taylor Fritz (7-0 in his favour). So in short, he'll be in the final unless something wild happens.

Finally, the third quarter is led by the new world no.4 Holger Rune. The Dane has an interesting draw with potentially tough obstacles in the form of Winston-Salem finalist Jiri Lehecka (second round) before 2020 winner Dominic Thiem, Alexander Bublik or Ben Shelton in the third round.

Tommy Paul or Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are possible opponents in a tough fourth round. Last year’s finalist Casper Ruud or Frances Tiafoe could then make for a spicy quarter-final showdown. If the 20-year-old manages his way through all that work, he’ll probably be rewarded with Djokovic in the last four...so best of luck with that!

Check out full men's draw here

Women's Draw

Remarkably, Iga Swiatek is already searching for her fifth grand slam title aged just 22. After a routine title win at home in Warsaw against lower ranked players, the world no.1 has had a mixed time in North America so far.

While Swiatek made the last four of both Montréal and Cincinnati, it was more of a struggle than usual as she dropped at least a set in five of her eight matches. Like Alcaraz, the defending champion is hoping to gain some momentum in Manhattan.

She should be able to do just that as Swiatek has been handed an appetising draw early on. The Pole should not encounter trouble in the opening three rounds unless she’s spectacularly off her game. A fourth round contest with Veronika Kudermetova or Jelena Ostapenko could provide some drama before the real test - Coco Gauff in the quarters.

Gauff’s game has hit a new gear of late thanks to the input of Brad Gilbert. The 19-year-old won the second biggest title of her career to date in Washington, then followed that up with a bigger one in Cincinnati where she beat Swiatek for the first time. I doubt any spectator would say no to a rematch between the pair on Arthur Ashe in the last eight.

The second quarter is led by Elena Rybakina who’s yet to make it past the third round at Flushing Meadows. The Kazakh had a good run to the Montréal semis where an extremely late finish to her quarter-final cost her. The 24-year-old is in a tricky section with potentially formidable foes in Marta Kostyuk (opener), Ajla Tomljanovic (second round), Sorana Cirstea (third round) and Victoria Azarenka/Belinda Bencia (fourth round).

If the world no.4 can survive that run, she could well be rewarded with a bout against the surging Karolina Muchova. After a disappointing Wimbledon outing affected by injury, the Roland Garros finalist has regained her mojo and had a brilliant final run in Cincinnati where she beat Sabalenka. The Czech could really push Rybakina in this quarter.

World no.2 Aryna Sabalenka is the chief protagonist in the bottom half but there are more than a few names that can influence proceedings. In Cincinnati, the Belarusian enjoyed solid wins over Daria Kasatkina and Ons Jabeur before Muchova outlasted her in the semis. In New York, the 25-year-old has a routine draw early on with the potential for an interesting fourth round against Kasatkina, Sofia Kenin, Donna Vekic or maybe 43-year-old Venus Williams!

I think Sabalenka should have enough to get to the quarters but she could come unstuck at that stage. Ons Jabeur, Barbora Krejcikova or Qinwen Zheng all have the capacity to unseat the Belarusian if there are any lapses.

Finally, Jessie Pegula will certainly draw the home eyeballs in the third quarter. After a dip mid season, the American has truly returned to form with deep runs at Wimbledon, Washington and her title run in Montréal where she beat both Swiatek and Gauff.

The 29-year-old will be favourite to progress here but do not underestimate the claims of Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, 2019 semi-finalist Elina Svitolina, 2017 finalist Madison Keys or Montréal finalist Liudmila Samsonova. This quarter could bring some welcome carnage to the draw.

Check out full women's draw here