PREVIEW | 2023 WTA FINALS

Final showdown of the WTA season pits world no.1 Sabalenka against Swiatek, Rybakina, Gauff and co.

By Stephen Higgins | 29th October 2023

An exciting 2023 WTA season comes to a close this coming week in the Mexican resort of Cancún.

This year, we watched Aryna Sabalenka ascend to world no.1 off the back of admirable consistency and her first grand slam success in Melbourne. Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek remained a factor at the top of the game though while Indian Wells winner Elena Rybakina built on her 2022 Wimbledon breakthrough.

Thankfully, it wasn’t just about those three names as some other stars excelled on the highest stages. After a period beset by injury, Karolina Muchova flourished over the season with her deep runs at Roland Garros and the US Open. Unfortunately, the Czech did not recover from a wrist injury to feature at her first WTA Finals. World no.9 Maria Sakkari takes her place.

The most fundamental change atop the women’s game was the completion of Coco Gauff’s journey to major champion. The extraordinary American achieved that distinction at Flushing Meadows with an impressive comeback victory over Sabalenka. Still aged just 19, it will be fascinating to see how many titles Gauff will accrue in the coming years. Maybe she’ll add another in Cancún?

At Wimbledon, we also witnessed a surprise champion in Marketa Vondrousova. The tricky Czech was a Roland Garros finalist in 2019 but had flown under the radar for much of the time since. Her upset of poor Ons Jabeur at SW19 was another intriguing plot line in an enthralling season for women’s tennis.

As you probably know, the WTA Finals is an event for the world’s top eight players, initiatlly divided into two groups of four before a knockout stage. The groups this year are named after Bacalar and Chetumal, which are destinations in Mexico. The Bacalar group comprises Sabalenka, Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari. Meanwhile, the Chetumal group contains Swiatek, Gauff, Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur.

The prize money for this year's event tops out at $9 million and the winner of the final will claim almost $1.5 million. If a woman goes undefeated through the event, she stands to earn over $3 million!

Bacalar Group

The singles tournament opens today with a bout between Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula. The 2022 Wimbledon champion had a season beset by niggling injuries but still managed to triumph at Indian Wells and Rome, and reached her second major final in Melbourne. Pegula enjoyed another consistent season with some titles (Montréal, Seoul) and deep runs in most places. However, the 29-year-old is yet to break her quarter-final curse at grand slams and had a horrible 0-3 experience at the WTA Finals last season. In this match up, Pegula leads the head-to-head 2-1.

The second match of the day sees the world no.1, Aryna Sabalenka, take on alternate Maria Sakkari. The Greek, who replaced Muchova due to the Czech’s injury, has had a mixed season to say the least. After her third straight first round grand slam loss in New York, Sakkari considered taking a break from the sport. But then, a surge to the Guadalajara title renewed her faith and form. She has a formidable task here against the Belarusian juggernaut. Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 6-3 though Sakkari won each of their clashes at the 2021 and 2022 WTA Finals.

Overall, the Bacalar Group is Sabalenka’s to lose given her form and convincing head-to-head against the others. It looks likely to be a battle for second place between Rybakina, Pegula and possibly Sakkari, who has come alive in this event over the past two seasons.

Chetumal Group

Iga Swiatek kicks off day 2 against the surprise Wimbledon champion, Marketa Vondrousova. The Pole’s season was a combination of excellent weeks of sensational play, coupled with some painful losses against her rivals. The world no.2 enters Cancun in form after cruising to the Beijing title earlier this month. On the other hand, Vondrousova lost her first round match in the Chinese capital and is a debutant at this event. Swiatek enjoys a 2-0 record against Vondrousova.

The second match of day 2 pits Coco Gauff against Ons Jabeur. Gauff arrives in Beijing as a top tier player after securing her first major at Flushing Meadows. While Jabeur seems to have recovered from the disappointment of her Wimbledon final loss, she may be below par after an injury withdrawal in Zhengzhou. Gauff just shades this head-to-head 3-2.

All told, it’s difficult to look past Swiatek in this group given her commanding head-to-head record and Beijing form. I’d expect Gauff to progress alongside the Pole, or even first if Swiatek falters.