PREVIEW | 2024 US OPEN

Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner battle for men's title while Sabalenka looks favourite in women's

By Stephen Higgins | 26th August 2024

An incredible summer of tennis comes to a close in New York this fortnight as the world’s best compete for the final grand slam of the 2024 season, the US Open.

The men’s game has revolved around the rivalry between Novak Djokovic and the young pretenders to his throne: Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. At Roland Garros, Alcaraz earned his third career major after a couple of epic victories over Sinner (in the semis) and then Alexander Zverev in the final.

Then, in London, the 21-year-old successfully defended his Wimbledon title after a surprising straight sets stroll over the seven-time champion, Djokovic. But, in an almighty role reversal, the 37-year-old summoned all of his powers just a few weeks later to beat the Spaniard to the Olympic gold medal in Paris.

Now, with the three men revving up for Flushing Meadows, we receive the shock news that Sinner - the world no.1 - tested positive for a banned substance earlier in the season before being cleared of wrongdoing or negligence this month.

As for the women’s side, fragility has coursed through the established top four of Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina in recent times. While the world no.1 was supreme once again at Roland Garros, she then sank to a third round loss at Wimbledon and did not reach the gold medal match in Paris.

As for Sabalenka, while she was a commanding champion in Cincinnati, the Belarusian made an earlier than planned exit at Roland Garros and was forced to skip Wimbledon with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Elena Rybakina and the defending US Open champ, Coco Gauff, are both searching for confidence and form coming in.

With so many variables, or you might say tennis balls in the air, let’s hope for a dramatic fortnight on the court. This year, players will compete for an enormous prize pot of $75 million with $3.6 million for each singles champion.

Men's Draw

While the media spotlight shines on Jannik Sinner, the lowkey Italian will try to focus on his tennis this fortnight. He did so successfully in Cincinnati where the 23-year-old secured his fifth title of the season and third Masters 1000 trophy.

Sinner has a good start to his draw here with an opener against world no.140 Mackenzie McDonald, a man he holds a 3-0 record over. Assuming that he can play unaffected by the external noise, the world no.1 should not really have much trouble until the fourth round where he could meet Tommy Paul, Arthur Fils or Winston-Salem champ Lorenzo Sonego. Paul, in particular, could be difficult if the world no.14 finds form in front of a home crowd.

From there, Sinner is projected to meet three US Open winners back to back in Daniil Medvedev (QF), Carlos Alcaraz (SF) and Novak Djokovic (F). That may just prove too much of an ask but we'll see.

Alcaraz sits on the other side of the top half and he has rocked up to the Big Apple on a two-match losing streak. After falling to Djokovic at the Olympics in that pulsating final, he then surprisingly lost to Gael Monfils in Cincinnati where he demolished a racquet in frustration.

On the loss to the Frenchman, the Spaniard said “I felt like it was the worst match that I've ever played in my career.” To top things off, Alcaraz suffered a minor twisted ankle just before the event but says he will be 100% for the start of play.

The Roland Garros and Wimbledon champion is looking to become only the seventh man to claim three majors in a season but the path to that feat is treacherous.

While Alcaraz has a handy start against world no.186 Li Tu, he could face a tricky run of Denis Shapovalov (2nd round), Jack Draper (3rd) and then the Washington champion and Montréal semi-finalist, Sebastian Korda (4th). If he finds top form, Alcaraz should make it through those obstacles and is projected to meet Sinner in the semis and Djokovic in the final.

Elsewhere in the top half, former champion Daniil Medvedev looks vulnerable as he crashed out of both Montréal and Cincinnati early. Meanwhile, The bottom section could be an open one as top seeds Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz are still in the process of recovering from injury.

Novak Djokovic headlines the bottom half and he hasn’t played since that titanic performance to win the Olympic gold medal in Paris. The four-time and defending champion says he still ‘feels the drive’ and ‘wants to make more history’.

The 37-year-old is still chasing that elusive 25th major title and he has been handed a very inviting draw to that end.

The Serb will start against world no.138 Radu Albot and should coast through the opening rounds. Things could get interesting in the third and fourth rounds as he may face Montréal champion Alexei Popyrin (third), and then Ben Shelton or Frances Tiafoe (fourth).

There may be the usual suspects of Andrey Rublev or Grigor Dimitrov in the last eight for Djokovic before a projected semi-final showdown with Alexander Zverev. All told, I think he will be very encouraged by his path to the final.

As for Zverev, the 2020 finalist, he comes to New York with confidence after deep runs at both Montréal and Cincinnati. At the latter event, he just lost a tight three setter to Sinner. The German has made at least the last eight in his previous three appearances at Flushing Meadows and will fancy his chances of repeating that.

The 27-year-old starts against his no.100 ranked compatriot Maximilian Marterer and should power through to the fourth round with little trouble. There, he could meet the rejuvenated Holger Rune or everyone’s new favourite Italian male, Lorenzo Musetti.

While Zverev is projected to meet Casper Ruud in the quarters, the Norwegian has struggled on the American hard courts so far and I think it’s more likely to be someone like Taylor Fritz in his way.

On the eve of the tournament, it's hard to look beyond an expected semi-final line-up of Sinner-Alcaraz and Zverev-Djokovic.

Women's Draw

2022 champion Iga Swiatek comes to New York below her top level after some difficult (by her standards) weeks. Her straight sets loss to Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati will surely sting and the Pole will hope to rebuild her confidence over the coming fortnight.

However, the 23-year-old has not been bestowed with a kind draw. While she has a comfortable start against world no.79 Kamilla Rakhimova, danger lurks in the latter rounds. The world no.1 could face Cincinnati quarter-finalists Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (third round) and Mirra Andreeva/Liudmila Samsonova (fourth) in succession.

From there, Swiatek is projected to meet world no.6 Jessica Pegula in the last eight. That could be a gruelling task with the American in supreme form after her Toronto triumph and run to the final of Cincinnati. Whichever way the draw develops, Swiatek will need to find top gear to navigate through to the business end.

While Pegula will be favourite to make it to the last eight, watch out for the surging Russian Diana Shnaider in that section. The 20-year-old was the champion in Bad Homburg and Budapest and then made the semis of Toronto where she beat Coco Gauff and Samsonova.

Moving to the second quarter, it looks very open from this vantage point with questions over the top seeds.

World no.4 Elena Rybakina comes into the event after a disrupted summer where she missed both the Olympics and Toronto with bronchitis. The 25-year-old then lost her only match at Cincinnati and announced a split with long term coach Stefano Vukov.

It’s hard to know how the Kazakh will fare this fortnight but if her game isn’t in the right place, the likes of Caroline Garcia (third round) or Beatriz Haddad Maia/Anna Kalinskaya (fourth) can certainly cause an upset.

Roland Garros and Wimbledon finalist Jasmine Paolini also sits in this section but the air may have come out of the balloon for the Italian. The 28-year-old has had a quiet time since SW19 and her draw looks brutal.

Paolini starts against former champion Bianca Andreescu and could have a run that includes Karolina Pliskova (second), Monterrey champion Linda Noskova (third) and then someone like Jelena Ostapenko, Karolina Muchova, Leylah Fernandez or possibly Naomi Osaka.

It’s a blockbuster section really as Ostapenko and Osaka clash in the first round. Anything can happen here so it should be fun.

Onto the bottom half now and last year’s finalist, Aryna Sabalenka. She will fancy her chances of getting back to championship match given recent form and the projected draw.

The Belarusian will open her campaign against world no.286 Priscilla Hon and it’s difficult to imagine her struggling in the early rounds. There are difficult players that could lie in her path including Madison Keys (fourth round) and Qinwen Zheng/Amanda Anisimova (quarters), but I would expect her to power through them on form.

Unless something wild happens, which is always possible, Sabalenka should really make the final here and probably win it all.

Finally, if we go to the third quarter we find the defending champion Coco Gauff. Unfortunately for the American and her fans, it has been a struggle of late. After falling in the round of 16 of the Olympics, the 20-year-old crashed out early in both Toronto and Cincinnati.

In the positive column, Gauff has been given the type of draw where she can possibly build some confidence. She starts against world no.66 Varvara Gracheva and should be good enough to get through that and her second match unscathed. However Elina Svitolina would be quite the obstacle in round three and Emma Navarro, who knocked Gauff out of Wimbledon, wouldn’t be any easier in round four.

The draw is manageable for Gauff if she can find the form of last year, but if she can’t, there are a number of players who can cut her defence short.