PREVIEW | ROLAND GARROS 2024

The most open men’s event in years while Swiatek is heavy favourite in women's

By Stephen Higgins | 25th May 2024

This coming fortnight, we look set for a seemingly unbeatable champion in one singles draw, while the other promises to be somewhat open and unpredictable. In a pleasant change for this year’s French Open, the former applies to the women’s event while the latter describes the lot of the men.

Iga Swiatek, the clear world no.1 and three-time Roland Garros champion, has been sublime on the clay this year with a title apiece in Rome and Madrid, and a semi-final run in Stuttgart before that. For good measure, the Pole beat world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka in both of those finals.

Meanwhile, on the men’s side, the established elite are in disarray.

World no.1 Novak Djokovic is currently in Geneva, competing at a 250 event because of underwhelming results thus far in 2024. As for Rafael Nadal, the 14-time champion in Paris, he has also struggled to match previous form in what’s expected to be his final year on tour.

Beyond those legends, Carlos Alcaraz (forearm) and Jannik Sinner (hip) have both struggled of late with injury. It’s unclear how they will fare over the next two weeks when the format shifts to best of five. Is this finally the moment for the surging Alexander Zverev?

But even before the main event commences, there’s already been a questionable decision from the tournament organisers.

Two-time finalist Dominic Thiem did not receive a main draw wildcard for his last Roland Garros campaign. The Austrian instead had to attempt qualifying and fell in the second round. Afterwards, the popular 30-year-old received a commemorative award. What a pity that such a great player of recent times had to exit before the tournament proper.

The main singles draw kicks off this Sunday with the total prize money pool 8% higher than last year at €54 million. Singles champions are expected to earn €2.4 million each for their trouble.

Men's Draw

12 months ago, Novak Djokovic lifted the Coupe des Mousquetaires for the third time in his career after a straight sets victory over Casper Ruud. Already the champion in Australia, that triumph set the Serb up for another run at the hallowed ‘Calendar Slam’.

It did not happen for Djokovic thanks to that extraordinary Wimbledon final loss to Alcaraz. However, a year on, the mood is very different around the 24-time major winner.

Djokovic is mining Geneva for wins and confidence after a lacklustre season by his lofty standards. This season, apart from semi-final runs in Melbourne and Monte-Carlo, the 37-year-old has struggled with unusual losses to the likes of Alejandro Tabilo and world no.123 Luca Nardi. Are we watching his decline in real time?

Assuming Djokovic gains some confidence from his semi-final run in Switzerland, the world no.1 should really overcome Pierre-Hugue Herbert in round one quite easily. The same might be said for round two, but Lorenzo Musetti or Thiago Seyboth Wild could make for an interesting third match. Rome semi-finalist Tommy Paul (fourth round) looks to be the biggest obstacle for Djokovic early on before a likely last eight clash with two-time finalist Casper Ruud or Taylor Fritz.

The second quarter should be all about Rafael Nadal, but may well end as Alexander Zverev’s tale. Incredibly, they are due to meet in the opening round with the unlucky Spaniard unseeded at Roland Garros for the first time in his career. It really is a horror draw for the 37-year-old.

The German has just moved up to world no.4 after claiming the title in Rome. The 27-year-old will also look to avenge his unfortunate semi-final loss to Nadal here two years ago, when he retired with a nasty ankle injury that put him out for months.

This time around, Zverev’s campaign could be disrupted by a domestic abuse hearing, brought by his ex-girlfriend, that will commence on May 31st in Berlin. Zverev denies the charges and is not obliged to attend the hearing, but could be summoned by the judge.

Whoever is victorious between Nadal and Zverev could build enough momentum to surge through the quarter and face Daniil Medvedev in the last eight. While not his best surface, the Russian is well able to play on clay and should have more than enough in the early rounds.

Turning to the bottom half, we find world no.3 Carlos Alcaraz in the third quarter. The 2023 semi-finalist comes to Paris undercooked after skipping Rome with a right forearm injury. Unfortunately, injuries have been a regular companion for the Spaniard.

The 21-year-old hasn’t hit top form since March, when he defended the title at Indian Wells. Peak play may not be required early in Paris, but Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Emil Ruusuvouri are good enough to trouble Alcaraz if the arm acts up. Assuming the Wimbledon champion can make it through to the last eight, clay stalwarts Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev will probably lie in wait.

Finally, Australian Open champion Jannik Sinner headlines the fourth quarter. The Italian has suffered hip trouble in the build up to Roland Garros, having withdrawn early from Madrid before skipping Rome. Unfortunately for the 22-year-old, his section looks very dangerous.

While Chris Eubanks is beatable in round one, Borna Coric could be a tricky second rounder if that hip is less than 100%, and the Croatian finds some inspiration. This section also includes former major winners Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, who will clash in round one.

Beyond those already mentioned, the presence of world no.8 Hubert Hurkacz, Rome finalist Nicolas Jarry, Rome semi-finalist Alejandro Tabilo, Grigor Dimitrov and Cam Norrie make the bottom quarter very exciting for neutrals, if not Sinner’s team.

Women's Draw

While there could be various outcomes on the men’s side, depending on the condition and confidence of the main protagonists, it’s almost impossible to see anyone other than Iga Swiatek hoisting the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen in a fortnight’s time.

While the 22-year-old can show fragility in moments and matches, they are noteworthy due to how immaculate she is for the most part. When the Pole gets on a roll, she tends to demolish all before her and it has been this way so far in the 2024 clay swing.

Since her tight three-set semi-final loss to Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart, the world no.1 has gone 12 matches unbeaten with the loss of just two sets. Swiatek will pursue a fourth Roland Garros title over the next two weeks which would tie her with the wonderful Justine Henin. One early match may decide things.

After an opener against a lucky loser/qualifier, Swiatek will probably face four-time major winner Naomi Osaka. The Pole will clearly be the favourite there, but imagine if the Japanese can show some of her old form and make it interesting? And if Swiatek beats such an elite player early, think of the confidence that will bring to her bountiful supply?

The 2021 champion Barbora Krejcikova makes for an interesting floater in that section, but the Czech is really out of form. Former finalist Marketa Vondrousova, Danielle Collins and Marta Kostyuk are also in there with Swiatek but it’s difficult to make a case for any of them stopping her early.

Coco Gauff, the 2022 runner-up, leads the way in an interesting second quarter. The 20-year-old has enjoyed a good clay swing so far and should really have the beating of Dayana Yastremska, Liudmila Samsonova and Beatriz Haddad Maia in that section. Along with Gauff, I’d expect Ons Jabeur, Jelena Ostapenko and Caroline Garcia to battle for progression here.

Moving down to the bottom half, the third quarter could be a riveting spectacle with several top players lurking. Elena Rybakina and Qinwen Zheng are the top seeds here, but anything could happen with three-time quarter-finalist Elina Svitolina, 2021 finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Dubai champ Jasmine Paolini and Sorana Cirstea around.

Naturally, the final quarter is the domain of the world no.2, Aryna Sabalenka. While chastened by those back-to-back losses to Swiatek, the Belarusian should still breeze through her early rounds in Paris. There may be some fireworks for Sabalenka in that section though, with Sloane Stephens (third round) and Madison Keys (fourth round) potentially in her path.

Apart from Sabalenka, it looks like a competitive quarter with Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sakkari, Daria Kasatkina and Mirra Andreeva all in the mix.