Preview | 2025 Australian Open

Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner are still the ones to beat in Melbourne

By Stephen Higgins | 10th January 2025

If it seems like last season has barely ended and we already have the first grand slam of 2025 on the horizon, you are correct. The United Cup - which the USA won - started just two days after you tucked into that Christmas dinner.

This Sunday, twelve days into the new year, the Australian Open starts at Melbourne Park with two clear favourites for the singles draws.

After swatting aside all comers 12 months ago, world no.1 Aryna Sabalenka could well repeat that feat over the coming fortnight given her scintillating form. As for the men’s draw, despite the shadow of that WADA appeal hanging over his game, Jannik Sinner will probably retain his title unless we see an exceptional challenge from Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev or the ten time winner, Novak Djokovic.

The prize pool for this year’s event will be AUD $96.5 million (€58.2 million), which is up 12% since last year. Therefore, the men’s and women’s champions will each receive AUD $3.5 million (€2.1 million).

If you’re already bored reading, you can listen to my tournament preview with Damien O’Meara on RTÉ 2FM’s Game On right here:

But if you don’t mind words, please read on!

Men's Draw

On the court, it has been an exceptional 12 months for Jannik Sinner since he earned that first major in Melbourne. The Italian went on to cement his position as world no.1 and secured eight titles in 2024 including the US Open and the ATP Finals. However, his tennis future is now in jeopardy as a result of that bombshell doping case.

Having received no suspension last year, if the Court of Arbitration for Sport rules in WADA’s favour then the 23-year-old could face one or two years on the sidelines. Until he and we know more, Sinner must press on with his job.

The draw has been reasonably kind to the Italian. He starts against former top 20 player Nicolas Jarry but it’s highly unlikely that a player of Sinner's class will exit on day one. From there, Sinner should not be overly troubled in the first week but Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune make for interesting potential fourth round opponents. The head-to-heads are close with those opponents but Sinner has had the edge recently.

Presuming that Sinner makes the last eight, he will probably take on Alex de Minaur or Aussie Open specialist Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Demon has never made the last eight in his home major and he has a difficult opener against Botic van de Zandschulp to overcome. As for Tsitsipas, the 2023 finalist will always be a threat at this event despite his decline last season.

Rounding out the top half, the second quadrant features last year’s finalist, Daniil Medvedev, US Open finalist Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev. Now a top five performer, Fritz should come through his section although Lorenzo Musetti, Ben Shelton and France’s latest star, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, could spice up proceedings.

The bottom section of the top half looks to be a straight shoot out between Medvedev and Rublev. The former US Open champion comes in a little cold after a disappointing end to 2024 and a break to celebrate the birth of a second child. As for poor Andrey, it’s now 0-10 in major quarter-finals. Will this be his year?

Moving down to the bottom half, we find both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz in the third quarter. In a sign of changing times, the 37-year-old did not win a major last season, his first barren run at grand slams since 2017. The only title that Djokovic won all year was the Olympic gold medal after that extraordinary tussle with Alcaraz.

Now with the assistance of Andy Murray no less, the Serb will hope to eke out a little more of that vintage magic as he chases a 25th major title. Unfortunately for fans of the former world no.1, his draw looks dicey.

While Djokovic has been handed a wildcard to start with (Nishesh Basavareddy), the rather large spectre of Reilly Opelka looms over the section. Last week in Brisbane, an inspired Opelka defeated Djokovic en route to the final where he unfortunately retired with a back issue. If the 6’ 11” 27-year-old recovers in time, he could be a wrecking ball through this part of the draw and a worry for Djokovic.

Another player of note here is Jiri Lehecka, the powerful and talented Czech claimed the Brisbane title after Opelka’s retirement. The 23-year-old is formidable on hard courts and took a set off Djokovic at last year’s United Cup. If the veteran Serb can navigate through those speed bumps, he will likely have the joy of facing Alcaraz in the quarters.

While the Spaniard’s 2024 season rather petered out after his summer exploits, we can expect a revived 21-year-old this fortnight with a fresh service motion too. Alcaraz has hired Samuel Lopez to work with Juan Carlos Ferrero on his coaching team.

The Roland Garros and Wimbledon champion starts against world no.72 Alexander Shevchenko and has a good path to glory. The most likely challengers in his section are Jack Draper and Sebastian Korda, but they carry vulnerabilities. While the Brit was outstanding in New York last year as he reached the semi-finals, the interim has been blighted with injury. Meanwhile, Korda is a former quarter-finalist here and is a significant force on hard courts, but he can blow hot and cold.

The penultimate section looks likely to be a shootout between Casper Ruud and Tommy Paul. The Norwegian enjoyed an excellent first half of 2024 that returned him to the game’s peak. This year, he has started brightly with two singles wins at the United Cup over Tomas Machac and Hurkacz. As for the 2023 semi-finalist Paul, he claimed three titles last season and is simply a brilliant all round player, particularly on hard courts.

It’s reasonable to expect one of those men to go on and face no.2 seed Alexander Zverev in the last eight. The German won almost 70 matches last year and finished the season with a title in Paris and a semi-final run at the ATP Finals. Now a consistent and overwhelming force on hard courts in particular, it’s difficult to look past the 27-year-old nabbing at least a semi-final spot.

Women's Draw

Clearly the best player on hard courts these days, Brisbane champion Aryna Sabalenka hopes to lift the Daphne Akhurst trophy for a third consecutive time this fortnight. In a dominant display, the Belarusian did not drop a set in Melbourne last year. She could very well match that showing but there are a few interesting opponents in her section.

The 26-year-old starts against former US Open champion Sloane Stephens. A shadow of her former self, the American is sadly on an eight match losing streak and won’t change that against the world’s best player. Beyond Stephens, the most interesting challengers in Sabalenka’s section are probably Mirra Andreeva, Clara Tauson and Linda Noskova.

Still just 17, Andreeva continues her extraordinary rise to the top of the game under the guidance of Conchita Martinez. The Russian made the semis of Brisbane - where she lost to Sabalenka - and could well face the Belarusian again in round four. Former junior no.1 Tauson is on a hot streak after winning Auckland in the run in and faces Noskova in the opener. Still 20, Noskova is streaky but knocked Swiatek out of the competition last year.

Assuming Sabalenka manages her way through that lot, she’s probably in for a repeat of last year’s final, though in the last eight, with Qinwen Zheng. The fabulously talented Chinese is now a top five performer after a brilliant end to 2024 saw her make the final of Wuhan, win Tokyo, and finish as runner up at the WTA Finals. The 22-year-old should become a consistent threat at majors going forward and can give Sabalenka trouble.

There could be chaos in the second quadrant where Coco Gauff will try to keep a myriad of star names at bay. The American, so impressive at the United Cup with a replenished forehand, has a ghoulish opener against the 2020 champion Sofia Kenin. While not at the level of her peak years, Kenin still made the final of Tokyo back in October where she beat Tauson, Daria Kasatkina and Katie Boulter.

Provided she gets through that tussle, Gauff should ease through the following rounds until a potential blockbuster in the fourth. The 20-year-old can meet any of the following at that point: former two-time champion Naomi Osaka, former Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic, 2023 Roland Garros finalist Karolina Muchova or 2017 Roland Garros winner Jelena Ostapenko. Of that bunch, Osaka is the one to watch with her performances and confidence improving under Patrick Mouratoglu.

If we move onto the bottom half, 2023 finalist Elena Rybakina has an excellent draw here if she can ignore the messy coaching situation off court. After parting with Stefano Vukov last season, the Kazakh made the smart decision to hire Goran Ivanisevic as his replacement. Then, out of the blue, Rybakina announced that Vukov would return to her team in 2025 with the slight complication that he is currently suspended by the WTA Tour as they investigate a breach of their code of conduct. Vukov denies any wrongdoing.

No one knows how this will shake out but if Rybakina can somehow focus on her game this fortnight, there’s a decent path through to the semis. The 25-year-old should not really be troubled through the opening rounds before a possible bout with Madison Keys or Danielle Collins in round four. From there, a potential quarter-final clash with the likes of Jasmine Paolini, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Katie Boulter or Elina Svitolina would hold little fear given her powers.

Finally, the bottom quarter contains world no.2 Iga Swiatek. After a disappointing end to 2024, coupled with her surprising one month ban for a contaminated medication, the Pole has begun 2025 in better spirits. The 23-year-old won four matches at the United Cup which included victories over Rybakina, Muchova and Boulter.

The Queen of Clay can go deep in Melbourne for the first time since 2022 but may be wary of the presence of Amanda Anisimova in her section. While the American is inconsistent, she has destructive power as Sabalenka found out in Canada last season. With potential opponents such as Anna Kalinskaya/Victoria Azarenka in the fourth round, and Emma Navarro/Daria Kasatkina/Ons Jabeur in the quarters, a path through is there for the Pole.