Preview | 2025 US Open
Alcaraz the favourite by a hair while Swiatek looks the woman to beat
With August on the wane, the tennis tour stops at the final grand slam of the season: the US Open. New York will see the conclusion of the 2025 majors - and some major careers - by the end of the fortnight.
We definitely know that two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, and former world no.4 Caroline Garcia, will depart from professional tennis after they compete at Flushing Meadows. The 2016 champion Stan Wawrinka, now aged 40, did not receive a wildcard for this year’s event and may not return before he retires. As for Novak Djokovic, this could well be the last appearance at a grand slam for the 38-year-old who still maintains a torch, if dimly lit, for his golden generation.
As for the top seeds, we should have all the main contenders on show though there is a question mark over Jannik Sinner. The world no.1 and defending men’s champion retired from the Cincinnati final with illness, and then skipped the revamped US Open mixed doubles event, so he’s unlikely to be 100% fit at the start. Will that make a difference however?
Cincy victor Carlos Alcaraz is naturally the chief threat to the Italian over the fortnight but there’s always the potential for an American breakout from someone like Ben Shelton in raucous Queens. It may just be too soon in his recovery for Jack Draper to compete at the business end, and maybe a year or two early for Joao Fonseca to light up Arthur Ashe.
On the women’s side, it’s likely to be that familiar quartet gunning for the title. Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka will hope to end the year with a slam after near misses in Melbourne and Paris, but she will be wary of the rejuvenated Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek, the in-form Elena Rybakina, and the tenacious if misfiring former champ Coco Gauff.
Along with the mixed doubles bonanza beforehand, singles champion will be well taken care of this fortnight with each winner receiving a cheque worth $5 million (€4.3 million) for their efforts.
Men's Draw
Eyes will be on the health of world no.1 and defending champion Jannik Sinner after the recent illness that forced him to retire in Cincinnati. Unless he’s in shocking condition, the Italian will harly go out in round one to world no.87 Vit Kopriva. However, there are easier second round assignments than a potential clash with Alexei Popyrin.
Last season, the Aussie made the fourth round at Flushing Meadows after winning the Canadian Open. Recently, he made the last eight in Toronto where he beat Daniil Medvedev and Holger Rune. If Sinner is still carrying any sort of issue, Popyrin has the weaponry to cause an upset.
Assuming the 24-year-old is over the worst though, he will likely play Denis Shapovalov or Marton Fucsovics in the third round before an interesting fourth round clash with Tommy Paul or a man enjoying the best season of his life, Alexander Bublik. Sinner’s projected quarter-final opponent is set to be the world no.5 Jack Draper.
A semi-finalist here 12 months ago, the Brit skipped the build up events for Flushing Meadows as he rested a left arm issue after his early loss at Wimbledon. However, he has a good section to progress from here with Lorenzo Musetti the highest seed around. An ominous quarter-final with Sinner looms over Draper, but I’m sure he’s just happy to be back and healthy and who knows, maybe Sinner won't be 100% at that point?
The second quarter looks pretty clear cut with the 2020 finalist and reliable US Open performer Alexander Zverev the clear favourite to progress. Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov and Alexander Rublev are the most likely contenders to unseat the German. Khachanov actually beat Zverev on his way to the Canadian final before retiring in Cincinnati with a back issue. The Russian, who made the last four here in 2022, could be primed for one of his renowned 'dark horse' runs.
Moving down to the bottom half, in the third quarter we find last year’s finalist, Taylor Fritz, and a man who has been to the championship match in New York ten times, Novak Djokovic. This is a messy quarter with some significant landmines in the form of Holger Rune, Jakub Mensik, Frances Tiafoe, Cam Norrie, Tomas Machac, Fabian Marozsan and everyone’s favourite Brazilian, Joao Fonseca.
With deep runs in Washington and Canada, Fritz should have enough confidence to take another charge at the draw here. The same cannot be said of Djokovic, who hasn’t played since that semi-final loss to Sinner at Wimbledon. With last four appearances at the first three grand slams of the season, the 24-time major winner has clearly done a good job of peaking for the majors with sporadic play in between.
That said, it’s clear that the body is starting to break down for the 38-year-old and he doesn’t look to have the level and fitness and form needed to beat Sinner or Alcaraz over five sets anymore. For the Serb’s many fans, I fear that this may be the last grand slam event we see Djokovic play, but he may well decide to fight on into 2026.
Finally, the fourth quarter features Emma Raducanu’s mixed doubles partner, Carlos Alcaraz. With the (probably minor) concern over Sinner, the world no.2 is my slight favourite for the event. The 22-year-old added some hard court confidence to his large reserve with the title in Cincinnati, his sixth crown of the season. Shifting to this fortnight, I think the Spaniard will be pretty pleased with his path to the business end.
Alcaraz should have little trouble in the early rounds before a possible fourth round bout with either former champion Daniil Medvedev, or the unpredictable Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The other names to watch for in that section are former finalist Casper Ruud and the exciting Ben Shelton. The American has a pretty good path here to the last eight here where he could setup an electric tussle under the lights with Alcaraz.
Women's Draw
It's been a slightly odd season for Aryna Sabalenka who has been more consistent than anyone with seven finals and three titles from them so far. But her losses have been painful when you recall those bruising contests with Madison Keys and Coco Gauff in the Australian and Roland Garros finals respectively.
Since her semi-final loss at Wimbledon to Amanda Anisimova, the Belarusian skipped Canada before a frustrating loss to Rybakina in Cincinnati. New York is now the last chance for Sabalenka to add to her grand slam collection in 2025. I wonder if it’s an opportunity missed for the Belarusian as she didn't fully take advantage of Swiatek’s prolonged spell of poor form? The Pole is very much back at it now.
Sabalenka has some appetising opening matches before former finalist Leylah Fernandez or Marie Bouzkova possibly crop up in round three. While the Canadian lost early in Canada and Cincinnati, her success in Washington should not be forgotten and she is always a fierce competitor. Clara Tauson is a potential fourth round opponent for the world no.1 and she is definitely to be feared. Earlier this year, the Dane lost to Sabalenka in two tight sets in Melbourne before beating her in Dubai.
If Sabalenka manages her way through those obstacles, it hardly gets easier with the prospect of a quarter-final clash with Elena Rybakina or Jasmine Paolini.
After a mixed season, the Kazakh has really kicked into gear in recent weeks with semi-final showings at Washington, Montréal and Cincinnati. We all know how good she can be at her best and the 26-year-old looks ready to make a big impression at Flushing Meadows. Rybakina has handy opening matches before a potentially juicy clash with Emma Raducanu in the third round. As for the cheerful Italian, she looks set to meet the Kazakh in the fourth round, unless Raducanu or possibly Marketa Vondrousova have something to say.
Moving on, there’s a very spicy second quarter led by Mirra Andreeva and last year’s finalist, Jessica Pegula. Unfortunately for the American, she has not been able to build on that grand slam breakthrough and has so far failed to reach the last eight at any major in 2025. The 31-year-old looks vulnerable coming in here with early losses at Wimbledon and all the North American events she entered. While Pegula's start here is decent, a potential third round clash with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova or Dayana Yastremska, followed by a fourth rounder with Belinda Bencic or Liudmila Samsonova look ominous.
This loaded section also contains Jelena Ostapenko, Emma Navarro and the story of the summer: Victoria Mboko. The 18-year-old lit up her native Canada with that surprise surge to the Montréal title while vanquishing Gauff, Rybakina and Naomi Osaka. While the buzz around Mboko is enormous and understandable, let’s not call her a title favourite just yet! The teenager has a tricky start to contend with against the streaky two-time major winner Barbora Krejcikova.
In a similar vein to the top half, the third quarter looks to be very competitive with former champions Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka, and 2017 finalist Madison Keys the women to beat.
After that brilliant fortnight at Roland Garros, Gauff has struggled to find consistent form and is hampered by serious issues with her serve. In one Montréal match she struck 23 double faults. It’s no surprise that she has searched out fresh help, dispensing with coach Matt Daly for Gavin Macmillan, the service expert who helped Sabalenka a few years back. It often takes time to make significant changes to strokes so the 21-year-old may be vulnerable here, particularly with experienced veteran Ajla Tomljanovic in the opener (probably) followed by Donna Vekic in the second.
After an extended period of treading water around the no.50 mark, Osaka finally found some decent form in Montréal with an excellent run to the final. She lost to Mboko there but hopefully it signals a change in her fortunes. We are still waiting for the two-time US Open champion to light up a grand slam since her return from maternity leave so maybe it will be this one?
Alongside Keys, who’s had mixed fortunes in terms of results and injury since Melbourne, the third quarter features Daria Kasatkina, Linda Noskova, the hopefully fit-again Karolina Muchova, and the 45-year-old wildcard Venus Williams. In fact, Williams and the Czech meet in a riveting opening round clash. I should also mention the departing Petra Kvitova, who opens against Diane Parry and may face Keys in the second round.
Finally we go to the fourth quarter, where Iga Swiatek has won the grand slam draw lottery. With Ekaterina Alexandrova, Diana Shnaider and Anna Kalinskaya the other seeds in her section, there’s a chance that the in-form Pole may not drop a set in the first week. Broadening the focus out to the rest of the quarter, we find the Wimbledon runner-up Amanda Anisimova, Elina Svitolina and former champion Sofia Kenin. With the way Swiatek is playing at the moment, I see her rampaging through the quarter and probably surging to the final.
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