Preview | Roland Garros 2025
Alcaraz and Sinner to duke it out for men's title while Sabalenka looks poised for first Roland Garros title
This could well be a Roland Garros of flux.
12 months ago, the two best clay court players in the world duly lifted the singles trophies at the Bois de Boulogne. It was a first for Carlos Alcaraz in Paris and a remarkable fourth success for Iga Swiatek. However, in the year that has passed, both the Spaniard and the Pole have found themselves in the shadows of two dominant world no.1s: Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka.
While Alcaraz has continued to win titles despite dips and niggles, the Italian has simply been a juggernaut since Wimbledon 2024. Sinner captured four titles at end of last season including the US Open and ATP Finals. Before his three-month ban came into effect in February, the 23-year-old polished off another major crown in Melbourne to cement his position atop the rankings. Alcaraz has added three titles to his own stash this year, but Sinner's lead was too large to catch.
Meanwhile on the women's side, the gulf has been more stark. After equalling Justine Henin's career haul at Roland Garros last June, incredibly, the Pole has not tasted silver since. In fact, her confidence and form have markedly declined. For the first time in five years, Swiatek has not won a title by this stage of the season. Her nine losses so far in 2025 also equals her season total in 2024 and 2022.
As for Sabalenka, the Belarusian's more expansive game style has brought tremendous returns. Sabalenka reached at least the final in six of her last nine tour outings with some big wins in there including Miami and Madrid. While the 27-year-old does not win every event, she is competitive at the vast majority of them and that consistency puts her at no.1 with almost twice the number of ranking points as Swiatek.
While those four stars are still the ones to beat at the Bois de Boulogne, other names can't be ruled out.
On the men's side, you can never discount last year's finalist Alexander Zverev, though his form has been subpar this year. After a concerning run, three-time champion Novak Djokovic split with coach Andy Murray but he has looked considerably better in Geneva. Two-time finalist Casper Ruud and the surging Jack Draper should be considered outside bets.
If there will be a surprise, it's more likely to happen in the women's draw. It's an event that has given us Jelena Ostapenko, Barbora Krejcikova and Anastasia Myskina as champions before, so why not this year?
There are actually a number of women who will fancy their chances if Swiatek is vulnerable. Along with established stars like Coco Gauff, Jasmine Paolini and Qinwen Zheng, Mirra Andreeva is worth consideration. And how about Ostapenko herself? Note that the Latvian beat both Swiatek and Sabalenka on her way to the Stuttgart title in April. Never write her off!
The total prize-money for the 2025 edition will be €56.4 million, with each singles champion set to receive €2.55 million, a 6% increase over last year.
Men's Draw
If we start with the top half, Jannik Sinner will be relatively pleased with his potential path through the event. The Italian starts against world no.72 Arthur Rinderknech and will face a French wildcard in the second round. Round three could be somewhat competitive with Brisbane champion Jiri Lehecka and Monte-Carlo semi-finalist Alejandro Davidovich Fokina possible opponents.
From there, rising Frenchman Arthur Fils or Andrey Rublev could be fourth round opponents for Sinner before a potential quarter-final showdown with Jack Draper. It should be noted that the Brit has never actually won a match at Roland Garros but that record surely won't stand for long. Judged on his successful return in Rome, I think we can expect a good challenge from the world no.1 this fortnight.
In the second quarter, last year’s runner-up Alexander Zverev and three-time winner Novak Djokovic will probably control proceedings. The German begins against the promising American Learner Tien, while the Serb opens against Mackenzie McDonald. Daniil Medvedev is just about the only name in that section who might upset a Zverev-Djokovic quarter-final bar a major shock.
Moving down to the third quarter, this is clearly the most open section. While Taylor Fritz is the higher seed, the impossibly stylish Lorenzo Musetti leads the way here after deep runs at Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome. Apart from that pair, there is an opportunity here for Holger Rune, Tomas Machac, Sebastian Korda, or clay court specialist Sebastian Baez.
Finally, the fourth quarter is all about the defending champ, Carlos Alcaraz. Carlitos will now play qualifier Giulio Zeppieri after Kei Nishikori withdrew on Friday. Alcaraz has a good draw here, but there may be some entertainment in potential tussles with Fabian Marozsan/Luca Nardi (second round), Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (third round) and Stefanos Tsitsipas/Ben Shelton (fourth round).
The last eight of this section could well see the Spaniard face two-time finalist Casper Ruud. While that head-to-head is not pretty (4-1 to Alcaraz), the Norwegian did win their last bout at the 2024 ATP Finals.
Women's Draw
After losing the Australian Open to an otherworldly Madison Keys, I think Aryna Sabalenka will put things right in Paris this fortnight. The world no.1 has a great draw to work with early on and has oodles of confidence after a long period of excellent results. The 27-year-old made at least the semi-finals in eight of her last ten grand slam outings.
Sabalenka starts here against world no.75 Kamilla Rakhimova and should really handle her opening rounds comfortably. There could be some sparks in a possible third round encounter with Danielle Collins, but it’s hard to see the game’s best failing to reach the last eight. At that stage, we could be in for a blockbuster between Sabalenka and the woman who just beat her in Rome - Qinwen Zheng.
In the second quarter, we unusually find Iga Swiatek. Having dropped to fifth in the WTA rankings, the defending champion will probably have to go through Sabalenka in the semi-finals to reach the championship match once again.
It has been a dispiriting clay court swing so far for the Pole with painful losses endured in Stuttgart (to Ostapenko), Madrid (to Gauff) and Rome (to Collins). She should at least be able to get off to a decent start in Paris though with an opener against world no.41 Rebecca Sramkova, who she beat 6-0 6-2 in Melbourne. It gets very dicey from there however.
A revitalised and pressure-free Emma Raducanu could be Swiatek’s second round opponent and that could be challenging given the Pole's struggles of late. From there, the 23-year-old will be fearful of the possibility of Jelena Ostapenko as a fourth round opponent. The Latvian holds a 6-0 head-to-head record over Swiatek and has already beaten her twice this season.
If all that wasn’t enough to get through, Swiatek’s projected quarter-final foe is the new Rome champion - Jasmine Paolini. On current form and confidence, I think this run of opponents could be too much for Swiatek unless she immediately rediscovers her clay court aura.
Shifting to the bottom half, there looks to be a very unpredictable section, and one that looks more like a procession.
2024 semi-finalist Mirra Andreeva - who’s still just 18 - will fancy a good run in the third quarter with the no.3 seed (Jessica Pegula) struggling of late. However, this section also has the presence of not one, not two, but three former Roland Garros finalists in Karolina Muchova, Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur. When you add Naomi Osaka into the mix, it’s a very tasty quarter.
Finally, 2022 runner-up Coco Gauff has been handed a dream bottom quarter to navigate through. The 21-year-old, who made the finals of both Madrid and Rome, may not drop a set before the last eight. I don’t see the just back Barbora Krejcikova, Ekaterina Alexandrova or Anna Kalinskaya derailing Gauff’s bid.
In the last eight, Gauff could face one of her compatriots (Madison Keys, Emma Navarro) or maybe Beatriz Hadad Maia. Whoever it is, I think Gauff should have enough in the tank for another monster run in Paris.
While you're here, why not SUBSCRIBE to my free weekly newsletter?
It gives you a round up of the latest tennis news along with results, rankings, upcoming tournaments and more!