As if reflecting global politics, tennis is currently in a state of flux.
With injury and inconsistent form ravaging the top players, 2026 has been a season of opportunity thus far. There have been different winners of each grand slam this season on the men's and women's sides.
Given the absence of world no.1 Jannik Sinner, and questions over Aryna Sabalenka, Carlos Alcaraz, Elena Rybakina and Novak Djokovic, we may see a fourth champion emerge in each draw by the end of the 2026 US Open.
It looked as if neither Sinner nor Alcaraz might make New York, but while the Italian is still stricken with a knee issue, the defending champion believes his wrist is up to the challenger after four months of rehab.
Four-time winner Novak Djokovic is in the field at Flushing Meadows but the 39-year-old’s aging body continues to hamper his play. After an early loss at Cincinnati, the 24-time major winner revealed that a health ‘condition’ has been an issue over the past two years.
Australian Open victor Elena Rybakina has her own problem to manage as she retired from the Cincinnati quarter-finals with a problematic ankle. The Kazakh will be particularly determined to play at Flushing Meadows with the position of world no.1 within her reach.
Sabalenka needs to win the US Open to stave off Rybakina’s charge but her form of late does not suggest a tilt at the title. The 28-year-old’s game is off-colour and she exited earlier than expected at both Toronto (l. Alexandrova) and Cincinnati (l.Bejlek).
All of these circumstances have allowed other players to bloom.
On the men’s side, Arthur Fils (Cincinnati), Ben Shelton (Montreal) and Taylor Fritz (Washington) have notched titles in North America while Rafa Jodar, Frances Tiafoe, Thiago Tirante and Brandon Nakashima have also impressed.
As for the WTA Tour, we have seen a motley crew of winners from established stars Iga Swiatek (Toronto), Coco Gauff (Cincinnati) and Barbora Krejcikova (Athens), to rising prospects Alexandra Eala (Washington) and Lilli Tagger (Prague).
For the 2026 edition, the USTA has provided the largest prize fund in grand slam history at $108 million, 20% higher than last year. Each singles winner will receive $5.5 million.
Right, let’s take a look at the draws.
Men's Draw
With Sinner out, Roland Garros champion Alexander Zverev is the top seed in New York this year.
After reaching the final of Wimbledon, the world no.2 has had a low-key North American swing with an early loss in Montreal followed by a run to the round of 16 at Cincinnati.
Given his major breakout this season, you can expect the 2020 finalist to have a good crack at this event and Zverev has a reasonable draw to work with.
The 29-year-old is unlikely to be troubled early on but Lorenzo Musetti is a legitimate potential obstacle in the fourth round. The Italian has a 3-2 record over the German and just made the last eight in Cincinnati, though he has a tricky opener against Arthur Fery.
Looking at the top quarter more broadly, Rafa Jodar is the standout name that could make a real dent in the draw. The 19-year-old has ten wins already in the North American summer and will fancy his chances of more success in a quarter with Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud.
The second quarter looks likely to be very competitive with Felix Auger-Aliassime and Wimbledon finalist Flavio Cobolli the top seeds alongside former finalist Taylor Fritz, Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien.
The Canadian’s North American swing has been disrupted by a back injury that forced him out of Montreal. Cobolli has surged however with an excellent run to the last four of Cincinnati before he lost his way against Fils.
In the bottom half, the third quarter looks fascinating with the presence of former champions Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev, along with two of the summer’s best performers in Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima.
Cincinnati finalist Tiafoe has a very manageable route through to the quarter-finals here but he may balk at the prospect of playing Medvedev given his 1-6 head-to-head record.
As for Djokovic, we will have to wait and see his condition in round one against Mariano Navone. Intriguingly, the winner there will play either Matteo Berrettini or Stan Wawrinka, with the latter receiving a late wildcard in his final grand slam.
The fourth quarter is naturally all about the returning Carlos Alcaraz who has a very tricky opener against Roman Safiullin. He will also have to contend with three tough adversaries in Arthur Fils, Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul.
Obviously a fully fit and focused Alcaraz is of a higher level than all players mentioned, but we haven’t seen the Spaniard compete since April so we await some answers.
Fils, another man hoping that his body cooperates over the fortnight, absolutely has the game to reach the closing stages of the tournament. The Frenchman has an interesting opener too against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
If the Spaniard is not quite up his standards, we can probably expect Fils and Shelton to decide this quarter and potentially the fortnight.
Women's Draw
Aryna Sabalenka returns to New York as the two-time defending champion, but she is not playing like it with a series of sub par outings since the Spring.
The world no.1 has been given a decent hand here with an opener against Camila Osorio. But the spectre of notorious spoiler Barbora Krejcikova in round three may concern the Belarusian despite her 7-1 lead in the head-to-head.
Krejcikova has done little in North America but did win Athens before a semi-final run in Prague before crossing the Atlantic. The presence of Diana Shnaider, who beat Sabalenka at Roland Garros, and Paris finalist Maja Chwalinska add further drama to the section.
Beyond those early obstacles, Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova and Madrid winner Marta Kostyuk could lie in wait in a quarter that will really test Sabalenka’s crisis of confidence.
Noskova has only won a couple of matches since conquering the All England Club but Kostyuk added to her career year in Toronto and Cincinnati where she was only beaten by eventual champions Swiatek and Gauff.
The second quarter is headlined by Cincinnati finalist Jessica Pegula and she should have the greatest influence on proceedings. With ten wins already on the hard courts this summer, the 2024 finalist should really navigate her way through to the quarter-finals at the very least.
While the quarter also contains Elina Svitolina, Jasmine Paolini and Sorana Cirstea, the steeliest challenge to the 32-year-old will likely come from Wimbledon finalist Karolina Muchova.
The Czech missed the warm up events in North America due to a minor surgery, but returned with a bang at Flushing Meadows as she partnered Mensik to the mixed doubles crown.
Moving down to the bottom half, the third quarter will be one of entertaining carnage.
2023 champion Coco Gauff is joined there by Roland Garros titlist Mirra Andreeva, Amanda Anisimova, Alexandra Eala, Iva Jovic and the breakout star of Cincinnati, Sara Bejlek.
While I wouldn’t say her game is completely settled, the foundations looked more stable in Cincinnati with Gauff's serve no longer a liability.
The American will hope for a big run this fortnight and given her imperious athleticism and vocal crowd support, I can see the 22-year-old getting to the business end unless Andreeva or Anisimova have a superb day.
The final quarter should also provide excitement as Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina have once again been drawn together.
In Canada, Swiatek ended a drought of almost 11 months and resembled her former self as she swept aside Rybakina in the final. The Pole hasn't been to the final here since 2022 but could repeat the trick so long as the serve, and her stress levels, are kept in check.
With that ill-timed ankle issue on the cusp of the tournament, Rybakina may not turn out to be a championship contender unless she can heal in rapid time. If the Kazakh is hampered, there will be some very willing alternate contenders in the shape of two-time winner Naomi Osaka, 2017 finalist Madison Keys, or possibly Belinda Bencic.
With Swiatek somewhat revived, you can foresee her reaching the last four and another bout with Gauff to make the final.
